2010年4月马来西亚银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月马来西亚银行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
The Malaysian construction sector, trading at only mean valuations, should
continue to see a re-rating following positive news flow on award activity and the
significant earnings uptick expected over the next two years. We maintain BUY
ratings on IJM, Gamuda and WCT, as we are increasingly confident of a pick-up in
construction activity. We reaffirm IJM as our top pick, as it will likely be the biggest
beneficiary of the diversified model and exposure to India and the Middle East.
 Catalysts
Key catalysts to watch out for will be news regarding project awards and the 10th
Malaysia Plan, which will outline infrastructure spending over the next few years.
Anchor themes
Infrastructure is back on the radar for Malaysian authorities. The government plans
to achieve construction sector growth of 5-6% over the next two years, compared
with 2-3% growth delivered by the sector over the past few years.
Still some way left to the top
 Acceleration in bidding activity — awards to follow soon
Bidding activity has accelerated over the past few months, which implies a
substantial pick-up in award-related news flow over the next quarter. Awards in
packets have already started for some projects, such as the Low Cost Carrier
Terminal (LCCT), while pre-qualification tenders have started in others, such as the
Pahang Selangor water project (RM4-8bn) and LRT extension (RM7-8bn). We
believe the focus will now turn to the 10th Five-Year Malaysia Plan (10MP) to be
announced in June-July, which is likely to focus further on increasing infrastructure
and construction activity, in our view.
 Opportunities exist in Indian roads and the Middle East
We believe Indian roads and Middle-East infrastructure opportunities could be
potential game changers for Malaysian construction companies. As per Nomura
research, US$125bn of awards in the Indian road sector are due in the next six
years. Similarly, the Middle East has planned and ongoing construction projects of
US$2.1tn. Thus, Malaysian construction players exposed to these economies could
surprise on the upside in terms of order accretion, in our view.
 Diversified players set to be the biggest beneficiaries
Owing to the increase in housing and infrastructure projects over the past few years
and increasing private participation, construction players have become developers
for these assets. We believe that this diversified business model will provide an
earnings buffer to companies under our coverage.
 Maintain bullish view on construction; IJM is our top pick
We maintain BUY ratings for IJM, Gamuda and WCT, as the positive news flow
should continue to lead a re-rating for the sector. IJM is our top pick with all the
makings of a blue chip, and we believe it should command a premium to other
peers. We expect IJM to benefit from its exposure to India and the Middle East,
with the most diversified earnings base owing to strong earnings from its property
portfolio, and stable cash flows from the plantation and ICP businesses.

Contents
Improving news flow to continue to drive construction sector
re-rating 3
The sector is still trading at mid-cycle valuations; earnings upgrades have
started 4
Positive news flow/diversified earnings strength to act as key
catalysts 8
Bidding activity has accelerated, awards may start soon 8
The 10 MP is the key event to watch 8
Rising order books and margin improvement should drive construction earnings 9
Property space continues to do well, last year’s sales to benefit this year’s
bottom line 12
Healthy balance sheets should let companies capture growth opportunities 14
Should get back in favour with foreign shareholders 14
Diversified players – biggest beneficiaries 15
Slowdown in domestic construction flows forcing construction companies to
don a developer’s mantle 15
Indian and Middle East opportunities – potential to surprise 16
Indian road pipeline: US$125bn opportunity in next six years 17
Valuation and investment risks 18
Delay in award of key projects 18
Margin expansion more muted than our expectations 18
Correction in property market could delay launches/ take-up rates 18
Regulatory risks for infrastructure assets 18
Appendix: Key projects announced 19
9MP saw 8.4% jump in investments planned 19
Latest company views
IJM Corp 22
Gamuda 26
WCT Bhd 30

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