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菲利普斯曲线的发展趋势如何？
WHAT’S UP WITH THE PHILLIPS CURVE?
作者：
马可·德尔·内格罗（Marco Del Negro）
米歇尔·伦扎（Michele Lenza）
乔治·E·普里米切里（Giorgio E. Primiceri）
安德里亚·坦巴洛蒂（Andrea Tambalotti）
The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they alwaysdid. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies thesources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnectis due primarily to the muted reaction of inflation to cost pressures, regardless of how they aremeasured—a flat aggregate supply curve. A shift in policy towards more forceful inflationstabilization also appears to have played some role by reducing the impact of demand shocks onthe real economy. The evidence rules out stories centered around changes in the structure of thelabor market or in how we should measure its tightness.
业务周期是一个活跃而良好的周期，实际变量或多或少会像往常一样对它做出响应。见证大萧条。相反，通货膨胀已经停滞了。本文使用VAR和估计的DSGE模型研究这种断开连接的来源。研究发现，这种脱节主要是由于通货膨胀对成本压力的反应减弱，而不管其如何衡量-总供给曲线平坦。通过降低需求冲击对实体经济的影响，朝着更强有力的通货膨胀稳定化的政策转变似乎也起到了一定作用。证据排除了围绕劳动力市场结构变化或我们应如何衡量其紧张程度的故事。
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