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关键词：POLICIES Deutsche Deutsch relaxed Polici China will POLICIES Deutsche relaxed

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Asia Economics Special – China: Will Macro Policies be Relaxed?
We provide details of our recent downward revisions to 2010 and 2011 GDP
growth forecasts. On a sequential basis, we expect GDP growth to drop to 7%
(qoq, saar) in Q3, before recovering from Q4. Yoy GDP growth will likely
decelerate for the next 2-3 quarters towards 8% in Q4 this year and Q1 next year,
down from 10.3% in Q2. (Jun Ma – 852 2203 8308)

China Macro Strategy – Is this "the" turning point?
As we pointed out in our economic note today, economic numbers will likely get
worse in the coming 2-3 months but policies may be only relaxed in Q4 this year
(see our report China: Will Macro Policies be Relaxed?). How will the equity
market react to this very mixed bag of signals?
In sum, we think investors do not have to be overly concerned by the possibility of
missing a huge rally starting from right now. There may well be other equally
attractive entry points, on a risk-reward basis, in the remainder of this quarter. That
is, even though the next entry point in the market is slightly higher than the current
level, it may actually be a safer one. (Jun Ma – 852 2203 8308)