金融市场习题集的一道题，有关概率的

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An accident insurance company has reserves to cover claims on no more than 3 accidents. If all accidents have a probability of 0.01 of occurring, if all accidents are independent, and if the insurance company writes 100 policies, what is the probability that they will not have enough reserves?

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关键词：金融市场 习题集 Probability Independent Accidents 习题集 金融市场 概率

有点难度，高手~~

38.44% 么?

没法写公式。一个简单的概率组合题。

哪位高手把解题思路写一下，能写出公式更好，学习一下

The probability that there are not more than 3 accidents ocurring is : 100*0.01*0.99^99+100*99*0.01^2*0.99^98/2+100*99*98*0.01^3*0.99^97/6=0.6156
So, the probability that they will not have enough reserves is 1-0.6456=0.3844.

非常感谢，我忘了乘后半部分了。

1-0.99^100-100*0.01*0.99^2-100*99*0.01^2*0.99/2,

如果三个人也算在内的话，不然就是楼上的