gs-Europe: Clean Energy: Solar-20101015

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Table of contents
Summary: We see selective growth for equipment stocks; negative on manufacturers 3
Solar manufacturing overview: Cost leadership and volume plays are still our top picks 6
Overall political support remains strong but FiTs will continue to be adjusted downwards 7
2011 solar demand could still surprise to the upside in our view; ASPs likely to fall 8
We model a mid-2011 13% FiT cut; more concerns on 2012 but see flexibility in the system 9
IRRs to equity will remain attractive through 2011 but could drop to 4%-5% in 2012 10
Our new FY11 ASP assumptions reflect an additional mid-year FiT cut of 13% 12
Solar equipment overview: We expect lower capex and more selective growth in FY11 16
Growth in 2011 could be more difficult to come by than in 2010 19
Valuation overview: Switching back to EV/EBITDA multiples 27
Risks to our price targets and ratings 34
Meyer Burger (MBTN.S): Down to Conviction Sell from Neutral on valuation 35
Wacker Chemie (WCHG.DE): EBITDA upside and change in mix undervalued; add to C. Buy 36
Solaria Energia (SLRS.MC): Upgrading to Neutral from Sell 37
Centrotherm (CTNG.DE): Downgrading to Neutral from Buy 39
Roth & Rau (R8RG.DE): Removing from Conviction Buy List and downgrading to Neutral 41
Appendix 44

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关键词：clean energy Energy Europe ENERG solar leadership political equipment surprise overview

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