请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版
楼主: bigfoot0517
3541 1

[外行报告] 韩国造船业研究报告2008年6月 [推广有奖]

  • 1关注
  • 21粉丝

学术权威

21%

还不是VIP/贵宾

-

威望
6
论坛币
12493617 个
通用积分
2.6112
学术水平
391 点
热心指数
369 点
信用等级
405 点
经验
28609 点
帖子
2147
精华
2
在线时间
242 小时
注册时间
2006-11-15
最后登录
2019-1-31

bigfoot0517 发表于 2008-6-23 08:23:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
相似文件 换一批

+2 论坛币
k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群
赵安豆老师微信:zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币!

+2 论坛币

Global differentiation of Korean shipbuilders
Shipbuilding orders continue to increase in steps in 2H08 Global
shipbuilding order receipts are expected to fall 25% YoY to 59mn CGT
(Compensated Gross Tonnage) in 2008 due to the global economic
slowdown and some speculative orders made in 2007. Growth momentum,
however, looks alive, given the 3-year average order increase of 11.4%, or
67mn CGT, during the 2006-2008 period. Global shipbuilding volumes in
2008 should be up 17.0% to 39mn CGT. The ratio of global orders to
shipbuilding volumes stands at 65% despite a fall in orders, which indicates
a bottleneck in supply. Taken together, order backlog should rise 11.7% YoY
to 199mn CGT as of end-2008, which is enough to make global shipbuilders
busy for 3.9 years on average.
Steel plate supply remains tight in 2H08 Korean shipbuilders are
estimated to spend more than 5.95mn tons of steel plate this year, while
the supply of plate will be tight in 2H08. Additional plate price increase is
expected in 2H08 on rising raw material prices. Korean shipbuilders,
however, should register the same level of profit in 2H08 as in 1H08 as they
now build more high-value added ships.
Shipbuilding prices to go up in seller’s market Global shipbuilders
continue to face capacity shortage on the overall booming in shipbuilding
including tankers, container vessels, and bulkers. Korea’s large shipbuilding
companies are enjoying a seller’s market due to a delay in shipbuilding in
China. So, they will be able to pass on plate price increases to ship prices,
which in turn will lead to a rise in vessel prices in 2H08.
Basket trading of HHI, SHI, DSME, STX Shipbuilding We maintain our
overweight position on the shipbuilding sector in 2H08 for the following
reasons;
1) From a long-term perspective to 2010, the sector should continue to
grow in 2H08 on increasing global shipbuilding order receipts.
2) While global shipbuilding orders will likely to drop this year compared to
last year, Korean shipbuilders, the world’s leading players, should
receive selective order receipts.
3) Korean shipbuilders should continue their strong growth with margin
expansion in 2H08.
Meanwhile, Korean shipbuilders are showing a repeated pattern of share
price correction in 4Qs, which is related to their business practices. We
recommend a technical approach to this issue.

2008 outlook for global economy and shipbuilding sector
The world economy, after a ten-year economic boom led by the U.S., gave way to
economic downturn in 2001. Amid the slowing economy, the global shipbuilding sector,
Korean companies with no exception, also entered the down cycle. However, starting in
2003 emerging nations, like China, registering a double-digit economic growth are
providing a momentum to boosting shipbuilding orders, benefiting Korean shipbuilders
especially.
According to the IMF, the U.S. economy is forecast to grow mere 1.9% this year and the
world economic growth should also slow to 4.8%.
However, with emerging nations maintaining their robust economic growth, the global
shipbuilding orders should post stable growth trends. We expect this trend will continue
through 2H08 as long as the growth momentum of emerging nations remains alive.
Meantime, with accumulated share price rises for Korean shipbuilders, their value is being
partially reflected in the stock market. Depending on the extent of the share price rise in
2H08, there should be heated debate on their fair values in 4Q08, irrespective of the
long-term shipbuilding sector outlook.

Shipbuilding June 9, 2008
2
Contents
2008 outlook for global economy and shipbuilding sector
3
Global order receipts trend: On the uptrend in absolute term
4
Global shipbuilding growth trend: Growing orders for large vessels
5
Global order backlog on the rise
6
Tight supply of steel plate to continue into 2H08
8
Vessel prices: Continuously on the rise
9
Korean shipbuilders to lead global market
11
Korean shipbuilders continue differentiated order receipts
12
Korean shipbuilders in the global perspective
13
Appendix: Top 5 Korean Shipbuilder core investment index
17
Company: Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries,
DSME, STX Shipbuilding
20

221796.pdf (970.58 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)


二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

关键词:研究报告 造船业 shipbuilding perspective speculative 研究报告 韩国 造船业

wsm05 发表于 2009-3-7 15:11:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
变是唯一的不变!

使用道具

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 我要注册

本版微信群
加JingGuanBbs
拉您进交流群

京ICP备16021002-2号 京B2-20170662号 京公网安备 11010802022788号 论坛法律顾问:王进律师 知识产权保护声明   免责及隐私声明

GMT+8, 2024-3-28 20:46