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Investment summary
Order growth in global shipbuilding, robust over the last 18 months, is
slowing despite strong fundamentals. Economic slowdown, tight credit
and fears of negative pricing from potential oversupply are key
reasons. We believe large shipyards, ones with niche products, and
those with exposure to the oil sector should emerge as winners.
With the accelerated growth in global trade and the emergence of developing countries such as China and
India, the shipbuilding industry is changing rapidly. Western Europe and Japan were major shipbuilders of
yesteryears. Today, Western European shipyards build most of the high-value ships (cruise liners and
ferries) and container ships. From Europe to Asia, a number of countries have claimed dominance in
shipbuilding, but time and again, shipbuilding has shifted to countries with the lowest costs. The shipyards
that survive are those that build high-value ships that require a greater level of expertise.
China aiming to be the largest shipbuilder globally: Korea is the largest builder of merchant ships, but
low-cost Chinese shipyards continue to ratchet up capacities to compete for new orders of low-valued
merchant ships. China is rising rapidly to become the world’s largest shipbuilder with its low labour costs.
If history is anything to go by, it is the shipyards in niche markets (e.g., cruise ships, oil rigs, LNG, and oil
production) and with the lowest costs that will have staying power in the increasingly competitive
environment. In the not too distant future, we expect China to take the place of Korea as the largest
shipbuilding nation.
Survival of the fittest: Again, we believe specialized shipyards will survive while the others will dwindle
away as the low cost Chinese builders gain market share. In our opinion, the most vulnerable shipbuilders
are not the Koreans, but the Japanese which have a comparatively higher cost base (1.5x higher than Korea
but 7x times higher than China in terms of average wages). If the recent acquisition of a 39% stake in
Norwegian-based Aker Yards (second largest cruise ship builder after Italy’s Fincantieri) by STX
Shipbuilding (067250 KS, Not Rated) is any indication, Western Europe may be starting to lose its hold on
the cruise ship market to Korea.
Excessive shipyard capacity unlikely a medium-term issue: China’s thirst to become the No. 1
shipbuilding country has pushed ahead the construction plan of new shipbuilding capacity, partially to
replace inefficient yards and partially to win more orders. At the same time, new joiners from India,
Vietnam and the Philippines are also leveraging their cheap labour and geographical location through
partnering with foreign shipbuilders. We have no doubt that the growth of global shipbuilding capacity will
accelerate through 2010. With that said, the strong backlog and delivery demand should mitigate the risk of
excessive capacity in the next few years, especially when most large shipyards are running at full capacity
at the moment.
Order growth moderating… The shipbuilding industry has shifted from a period of growth acceleration
to growth moderation. Ship owners are less inclined to part with cash in light of potentially less shipping
volumes as the global economy slows. Shipbuilding has historically been cyclical, but every cycle differs.
Positive shipping fundamentals (especially large crude tanker segment) continue to suggest strength in
order activity, but moderating global economic growth is overriding these positives. The commodities side
of shipping continues to be strong, driven by infrastructure investment in developing countries, particularly
China, while shipments of semi-finished and finished goods in container shipping have shown signs of
growth moderation. Wet bulk (e.g., crude oil) freight rates are still at robust levels, driving shipping
earnings and cash flows, which typically points to strengthening new build order activity. However, a
mixed near-term economic picture, inflationary pressure, tight credit markets, and potential oversupply of
ships have likely led to moderating order growth for large bulk carriers and container ships.
…But order backlog still growing albeit at a slower pace: Most of the shares of the companies under
coverage have retreated from recent highs. Near-term global economic uncertainties, strong order activity
during the past 2 years, and potential oversupply of global fleet increases the risk of further near-term order
growth moderation for the industry. Rising order backlog growth has slowed but is still up 39% y-o-y,
suggesting limited shipyard capacity and sustained earnings growth. With strong order growth in 2006-07
and a relatively solid orderbook, we expect earnings to accelerate in 2009 and potentially further in 2010
(i.e., up 30-66%), despite rising steel costs.
Where do we go from here? Global economic uncertainties, strong order activity during the past 2 years,
tight credit markets, and potential oversupply of global fleet increase the risk of further order growth
moderation near term. As a result, shares of major shipbuilders have sold off from the 2H07 peak, despite
potential strength in shipbuilder earnings and returns over the next 2 years.
After our analysis of the shipbuilding sector, we were able to peel away the cyclical issues just mentioned
to make sense of the underlying industry and have identified potential outperformers. We have distilled the
“five golden rules” for selecting long-term industry survivors.
1 Niche players building sophisticated high-value ships (e.g., oil development and production
equipment), which have higher entry barriers and pricing power;
2 Well positioned companies that are exposed to growing demand for equipment for deep sea oil
equipment and seaborne oil trade;
3 Low cost producers (i.e., typically Chinese shipbuilders);
4 Large shipyards with a quality order book and strong balance sheets to weather the credit turmoil;
and,
5 Attractive valuation at this stage of cycle.
Based on these five stock selection criteria, we are:
Overweight (V) Samsung Heavy – largest oil drillship builder globally and demand for equipment for
deep sea oil development set to rise;
目录
Investment summary 1
Investing in shipbuilders: Five golden rules 4
Stock selection based on our investment thesis 6
Shipbuilding overview 9
Global shipbuilding cycle 9
Market share by country 12
Shipyard capacity 13
End markets 14
Shipbuilding dynamics 16
Shipbuilding industry outlook 17
Shipyards at full capacity 18
Charter rates 20
Bunker prices 22
Scrapping 23
Fleet age 24
New and used prices 25
Bulk carrier outlook 27
China boosts bulk trade 27
Dry bulk carriers – new order correlations 32
Container ship outlook 33
Container activity boom 33
Container ships – new order correlations 39
Tanker outlook 40
New build tankers 40
Oil demand and supply 41
Seaborne trade 42
Supply overview 44
Oil tankers – new order correlations 47
Product tankers – a close look 48
New build prices 49
Vessel phase-out 49
Underlying risks 50
LNG & LPG carriers 52
Alternative to fuel oil 52
LNG demand and supply 53
Gas carrier outlook 54
LNG and LPG carriers – negative near-term outlook 55
Company profiles 57
Samsung Heavy Industries 58
China State Shipbuilding 62
Hyundai Heavy Industries 66
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 71
COSCO Corp. Singapore 74
Guangzhou Shipyard Int’l 78
Appendix I: Introducing MACC 82
Appendix II: Glossary 85
Disclosure appendix 87
Disclaimer 90
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