瑞士信贷：2009年美国烟草行业展望

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Tobacco 2009 Outlook
SECTOR REVIEW
Even Bad News Would Be Better Than No
News
After a disappointing 2008 for tobacco stocks (with the exception of the
acquisition driven share price gain for UST), we expect to see a better
performance in 2009:
■
We believe that a large part of the tobacco underperformance during the last
quarter of 2008 was driven by investor concerns about the impact of an
expected federal excise tax (FET) increase during 2009. The lack of
details about the expected FET increase – e.g., size of the increase,
implementation schedule and timing of the decision – is causing very limited
visibility for volumes this year. Therefore, a decision on the FET, which we
expect for mid- to late February, should create more clarity thereby
improving investor confidence. In that sense even a tax increase larger than
the currently expected $0.61 per pack might be positive for the stocks in the
medium term, as it would remove much of the uncertainty about the volume
decline in 2009. Even in a worst case scenario valuations and dividend
yields look attractive at current levels.
■
We expect litigation to remain benign, even though the headline risk
remains. Cases to be watched in our opinion are the lights cases following
the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Good vs. Philip Morris, the Engle
progeny cases in Florida, the Scott case in Louisiana, and – Altria specific –
the Williams case and the implications it might have on the ratio of punitive
to compensatory damages.
■
Any improvement in the credit environment, should be positive for the
tobacco stocks, as it would (1) allow MO to finance the remaining $3.5 billion
from the UST acquisition at lower costs than the 9.5% for $6 billion issued in
November, (2) enable LO to issue debt at a more reasonable cost with the
majority of the proceeds going to share buybacks, and (3) get RAI closer to
being able to finance a possible acquisition of LO
We also expect PM to perform well in 2009, as we still see the growth story
intact. Emerging market volume trends are unchanged and even though we
might see a slowdown of the trend to trade up to premium brands we continue
to believe in the growth potential in these markets. Pricing power in developed
markets appears to be unchanged and a lot of downtrading in these markets,
particularly in Western Europe, has already taken place over the last few years.
Therefore, we are not overly concerned about a dramatic mix shift there. Finally,
currency concerns have eased slightly with the recent weakening of the U.S.
dollar, e.g., compared to the mid-November high of $1.26/

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关键词：瑞士信贷 烟草行业 Implications Acquisition performance 美国 行业 信贷 瑞士 烟草