摩根大通：欧洲通讯设备研究报告2009年1月

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EMEA Communications
Equipment
Telco equipment market growth stalls; detailed market
data and forecast reductions
EMEA Communications
Equipment
Rod Hall, CFAAC
(44-20) 7325-7437
rod.b.hall@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Malvika Gupta
(44-20) 7742-0939
malvika.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
US Communications Equipment
Ehud A. Gelblum, PhD
(1-212) 622-6457
ehud.gelblum@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
For Specialist Sales advice, please
contact:
John McPate
(44-20) 7779-2159
john.mcpate@jpmorgan.com
See page 47 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Vendor share price relative
performance
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Euro Stoxx 600 ALU
NOK ERIC
ADVA
Source: Datastream
• Reducing overall infrastructure growth estimate to a decline of 9.9% in
’09: We reduce our segment estimates across the board to accommodate
what we believe will be a rapid spending pullback by carriers in 2009. This
pullback has been well signaled by operators globally – we provide an
update on our carrier capex datapoints matrix including the 25 negative
announcements we are tracking to date. We generally model slightly better
numbers in H2 '09 but see the year as a tough one for infrastructure.
• Underweight Ericsson and cautiously Overweight ALU: We continue to
believe that Ericsson’s “flattish” guidance for market revenue in 2009 is
unrealistic and will need to be revised downward. We remain Overweight
Alcatel-Lucent but acknowledge that buying ahead of better visibility on
infrastructure is difficult. We continue to believe that tech stocks will not
trade on relative multiples but rather on earnings revisions and that negative
infrastructure fundamentals are not yet factored into stock prices.
• Wireline growth deteriorates substantially as optical growth gives up
the ghost: Optical growth was just 7.4% in Q3 – substantially below our
18.2% Y/Y growth forecast after having beaten our above-consensus
estimates consistently for several quarters. We reduce our wireline Y/Y
estimate to an 11.6% decline in 2009, down from + 3.0% previously.
• Government works projects could eventually be positive for optical
access: We believe that government works projects in the US and UK could
eventually include rural broadband – similar to the rural electrification
projects of the 1930s. Should this develop as a trend, fixed access companies
like Alcatel-Lucent could benefit.
• Wireless expected to also suffer as carriers do not need additional radio
bandwidth: We continue to see no help from mobile broadband post the
catchup spending currently occurring in the US, which we expect to rapidly
slow in Q1. We reduce our wireless market expectation to a decline of 8.3%
in ’09 – down from our prior 5.5% growth forecast in constant currency.
• 2009 company forecast impacts: Our Alcatel-Lucent EBIT forecast comes
down slightly to –(

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关键词：摩根大通 研究报告 通讯设备 Fundamentals announcement 研究报告 欧洲 摩根大通 通讯设备