Shipbuilding: Dead calm
Vessel demand: Facing headwinds
The global shipbuilding industry should remain under pressure due to
frozen liquidity, the prolonged economic slowdown and a daunting 35%
growth in the global fleet through 2012 (based on the global orderbook).
While vessel prices having already declined 16% from their peak, we
forecast orders to plunge another 60% y-y in 2009 and to remain flat in
2010. With the two fundamental share price drivers – order volumes and
pricing – in free-fall, expect the Korean shipbuilding sector to remain
turbulent throughout 2009.
Cash flows: Under siege
Not only is the industry cycle stuck in a prolonged trough, frozen liquidity
has added new layers of risk in the form of order cancellations, payment
deferrals and delayed deliveries, which impair cash flows, deteriorate
financial stability and may result in staggering losses on forex hedge
contracts. Dwindling net cash positions could result in an estimated
KRW1.0t-1.5t in debt raising to replenish insufficient working capital due
to: 1) potential payment deferrals on existing orders to prevent buyer
default or cancellation; and 2) the absence of initial payments from nonexistent
new order flows.
Earnings revisions
Shipbuilders can enjoy solid earnings in 2009 and 2010 as near term
deliveries are unlikely to be cancelled. Revenue growth is sustainable as
output volumes expand in line with delivery schedules and operating
profitability remains robust due to improving product mix, higher priced
orders and improving cost structure. Our earnings reduction is focused
more on decline in 2011 as a result of this year’s dismal environment
and is reflected in a low average EPS CAGR of only 9%.
Valuations
Despite being highlighted for visibly steady near-term earnings and
rising 83% from the 4Q08 trough, we maintain a cautious stance on the
Korean shipbuilding sector and downgrade ratings on the big three
shipyards to REDUCE with new TPs based on 45% discount to implied
2009E P/BV based on ROE to COE comparisons. Given sector volatility
we recommend taking advantage of short-term trading opportunities.
Vessel demand: Facing headwinds
The global shipbuilding industry should remain under pressure this year due to frozen
liquidity and the global economic slowdown. New vessel order demand has been
paralyzed by a lack of available ship financing and daunting fleet growth statistics
based on the global orderbook, in the face of expectations for sluggish maritime trade
volumes. Despite a 47% y-y plunge in global new vessel orders to 91m GT in 2008,
with demand halting in August, the global orderbook stood at 367m GT, equal to 44%
of the 832m GT global fleet, at the end of last year.
Based on the size of the global orderbook, the world fleet is set to expand by 35%
through 2012. This includes estimates for as much as 79m GT in demolitions over the
next four years. To make matters worse, Clarkson Research Studies forecasts the rate
of vessel fleet growth to be the highest at 10% in 2009. While shipping companies
make capex decisions based on expectations for long-term growth in maritime trade,
the lack of visibility on the duration of this global recession and the amount of time
needed for the market to digest the impending deluge of vessel deliveries should
continue to depress demand for the time being.