摩根大通:全球电力设备行业研究报告2009年2月

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Global Power Market Review
Global orders to fall by 60% in 2009
European Capital Goods
Andreas WilliAC
(44-20) 7325-4853
andreas.p.willi@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Nico Dil
(44-20) 7325-4292
nico.dil@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Joseph Peter
(44-20) 7325-7144
joseph.x.peter@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Bramen Singanayagam
(44-20) 7325-6810
bramen.x.singanayagam@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
US Electrical Equipment & Multi-
Industry
C. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA
(1-212) 622-6623
stephen.tusa@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
For Specialist Sales advice please
contact:
Timm Schulze-Melander, CFA
(44 20) 7325-3282
timm.schulze-melander@jpmorgan.com
See page 67 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Figure 1: Annual orders, MW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
90ies
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009E
medium term
Source: J.P. Morgan.
• Global power orders to fall by up to 60% in 2009: The global power
equipment market has held up reasonably well in recent quarters in terms of
orders; cancellations and postponements have been more moderate than
elsewhere and the initial fears on availability of financing for customers to
complete backlogs have moderated. We expect order declines to intensify in
the coming quarters and look for global equipment orders to fall by around
50% in GW with pricing down 10%. We estimate the market to recover
to around 260GW post the downturn compared to the 2007/2008 peak
level of 320-330GW.
• Longer term industry fundamentals intact: Good backlogs will mostly
carry the equipment makers through the order dip and a structurally
increasing replacement market should result in an order recovery once
confidence returns and financial conditions ease. However, in the next 12-
24 months at least, weak orders and associated cash outflows will weigh
on sentiment. The power market should recover more quickly than other
capex markets given the structural replacement need.
• We have downgraded Alstom to Neutral: We expect weak orders and cash
flow and concerns on industry pricing to limit performance in the medium
term despite an attractive valuation. We have lowered our adj. EPS estimates
(FY10E -4%, FY11E -13%) and multiples-based Dec09 target price to

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