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CEEMEA Telecoms and Media
Key Sector Views and Global Weekly Perspective
CEEMEA Telecoms & Media
Jean-Charles Lemardeley, CFAAC *
(44-20) 7325-5763
jean-charles.lemardeley@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Elena Bazhenova
(7-495) 937-7314
elena.bazhenova@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
Malin Hedman
(44-20) 7325-9353
malin.b.hedman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Johan Snyman
(27-11) 507-0377
johan.x.snyman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Equities Ltd.
* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules
See page 44 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
• Key Telecom Headlines: Zain has reported its FY08 results, which were
largely in line with our estimates. It reported total subscribers of 63.5mn,
which was 6.3% ahead of JPMe. Telekom Austria’s CEO Boris Nemsic will
leave the company and become the new CEO of Vimpelcom. Under the
Nemsic reign Telekom Austria’s domestic mobile operations performed
very strongly in a particularly challenging market environment, however he
was instrumental in the acquisition of the Belarusian operator MDC, for
which in the European team’s view the company overpaid materially.
Recently he has communicated a more shareholder friendly policy. J.P.
Morgan’s Indian telecom analyst believes that the government’s MVNO
policy will further increase competition and remains cautious on the sector.
J.P. Morgan’s European telecom team has downgraded TeliaSonera to UW
as they see a more difficult period nearing with growth close to zero and
macro concerns weighing on the stock. The team remains OW on Deutsch
Telekom after the healthy 4Q 08 results where the company presented a
confident 2009 guidance. For Vodafone the belief is that the focus will now
be on market repair rather than on margin downgrades and the team
reiterates their OW rating.
• Key Media Headlines: CTC Media has reported its 4Q08 results, for the
full 2008 year the company posted revenue of $640mn which is closer to the
lower boundary of its guidance range of $630-$660mn following the ruble
devaluation, whilst the full year EBITDA margin of 44% is closer to the
higher boundary of its guidance range of 40-44%. The company sees 1Q09
revenue going down by 10% y/y in local currency.
• Telecom Performance and Valuation Backdrop: Telecom performance
continues to be dominated by macro, currency and credit concerns, with
Russian stocks faring particularly poorly, however these have rebounded
slightly as of late. Only a very few high-yielding integrated incumbents (Turk
Telecom, TPSA, TEF O2 Czech), and the strongest balance sheet mobile
operators (Turkcell and MTN) have outperformed the sector in the past year.
Telecom has outperformed the broader market in Europe year to date.
• Media Performance and Valuation Backdrop: Media has derated sharply
in emerging markets on expectations of a sharp growth slowdown and
currency concerns, and the stocks continued to derate sharply on macro
concerns. These were also evident in developed market media although the
performance has improved lately compared with their benchmarks.
• Top Picks: Our top picks across CEEMEA Telecoms and Media are VIP,
Turk Telekom, Mobinil, MTN and Comstar.
Table of Contents
Key Sector Views and Top Picks ............................................3
Key Investment Themes ..........................................................7
Price Targets...........................................................................10
Stock Investment Theses ......................................................11
Key Telecom News and Research of the Week ...................16
Key Media News and Research of the Week........................25
Media: Audience Developments............................................28
Valuation: Multiples................................................................29
Valuation: DCF Valuation.......................................................32
AFK Sistema ...........................................................................33
Key Company Projections .....................................................42
Please see the relevant research report, or the most recent company-specific
research published by J.P. Morgan for important disclosures, including a discussion
of valuation and risks, for any security recommended herein before forming any
investment opinion whatsoever. J.P. Morgan research is available at
http://www.morganmarkets.com, or you can contact the covering analysts or your
J.P. Morgan representative.
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