德意志银行：中国港口行业研究报告2009年3月

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Asia China
Conglomerates
9 March 2009
Chinese Ports
Unprecedented decline -
downgrade to Sell
Karen Tang, MA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6141
karen.tang@db.com
Recent mis-pricing creates opportunities to Sell
Chinese port operators are facing a severe volume decline, medium-term excess
capacity and a price war in disguise. Despite their long-term values, we think
further de-rating in the near term is inevitable as monthly data should continue to
disappoint. China Merchants and Cosco Pacific outperformed the HSI since late
November on misplaced investor optimism on China PMI and BDI recovery.
Downgrade both stocks from Buy to Sell. Target prices imply 20-29% downside.
We cut 2008-10E EPS for both stocks by 10-50%.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Top picks
China Merchants (0144.HK),HKD13.30 Sell
Cosco Pacific (1199.HK),HKD5.57 Sell
Companies featured
China Merchants (0144.HK),HKD13.30 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 28.9 9.5 12.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.9 8.2 9.7
Price/book (x) 4.3 1.1 1.1
Cosco Pacific (1199.HK),HKD5.57 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 25.0 5.8 8.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.0 6.0 6.3
Price/book (x) 2.2 0.6 0.6
Leading indicator
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
1/03 1/05 1/07 1/09
Import processing yoy
Container throughput yoy
Correlation (2mth lead): 83%
-48%
Container throughput yoy
2008 Jan 09 Feb 09
Official Official Channel
Ranking Data Checks Trend
No. 1 Shanghai -17% -16% Similar
No. 2 Shenzhen -18% -26% Worsening
No. 3 Ningbo -9% -24% Worsening
No. 4 Guangzhou -31% NA Not available
No. 5 Qingdao 2% 2% Similar
No. 6 Tianjin -4% NA Not available
No. 7 Xiamen -11% -18% Worsening
Others NA Not available
China Major Ports -14% -17% Worsening
Global Markets Research Company
Container throughput could drop 10% in 2009
Channel checks suggest the yoy decline likely accelerated in February to 17%,
worse than the 14% yoy drop in January. Management believes the drop-off is
temporary due to a sudden freezing of trade credit in 4Q08, but we disagree. We
believe global consumer demand for Chinese products will decline further. We
note that import processing, which typically leads container throughput by two
months, fell 48% yoy in January.
Pearl River Delta the worst-hit region
Pearl River Delta has a high dependence on exports (Shenzhen 93% vs Bohai Rim
76%) and product types with the weakest consumer demand. This should make
China Merchants more vulnerable to throughput decline as it generates 48% of its
throughput in this region vs. 30% for Cosco Pacific.
Price war in disguise
To make matters worse, supply is growing faster than demand (11% vs 1% CAGR
over 2009-11E). Excess capacity pushes port operators to compete on prices.
Shanghai and Qingdao are offering free storage and special discounts. Other
operators are chasing lower-priced empty box business (50% discount to laden
boxes). Shenzhen’s empty boxes increased from 32% in Jan 2008 to 40% in Dec
2008. Combined with steeper volume discounts, ASP could drop 10% in 2009.
Downgrade to Sell with 20-29% downside potential
China Merchants and Cosco Pacific are trading at steep discounts to their longterm
values (HK$20 and HK$12, respectively), in our view. However, near-term
throughput data will likely disappoint the market, pushing the stocks below the
previous trough valuation. Hence, we set our TP for China Merchants at HK$9.5,
on 0.8x PB (15% discount to previous trough PB). Given Cosco Pacific’s higher
earnings volatility from container leasing, our TP is HK$4.5, on 0.5x PB (35%
discount to previous trough PB). Key risk is a V-shaped recovery in exports.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Volume falling off the cliff ................................................................ 4
Key points ................................................................................................................................4
Container throughput could shrink 10% in 2009.......................................................................4
Global demand for Chinese products in a slump ......................................................................5
Leading indicators suggest a further leg down.........................................................................6
Pearl River Delta the worst-hit region .......................................................................................6
Price war in disguise ......................................................................... 9
Key points ................................................................................................................................9
Oversupply creates excess capacity .........................................................................................9
Pursuit of lower margin empty box business..........................................................................11
Price competition among port operators ................................................................................11
Handling more boxes at discounted tariffs .............................................................................11
Long-term growth intact................................................................. 13
Globalization of manufacturing is a long-term positive............................................................13
Containerization rate in China shows room for growth...........................................................13
Recent mis-pricing creates opportunities ..................................... 14
Recent outperformance not justified ......................................................................................14
China Containerized Freight Index still in the doldrums ..........................................................14
China’s new export orders still contracting.............................................................................14
Trading at premium to global peers ........................................................................................15
China Merchants.............................................................................. 17
Long-term value at HK$20 ......................................................................................................17
12-month target price set at HK$9.5.......................................................................................17
FY09 recurrent net profit could drop 20% ..............................................................................19
Company background .............................................................................................................20
Port assets focusing on Shenzhen and Shanghai....................................................................20
Cosco Pacific .................................................................................... 22
Long-term value at HK$12 ......................................................................................................22
12-month target price set at HK$4.5.......................................................................................22
FY09 recurring net profits could drop 29%.............................................................................24
Company background .............................................................................................................25
Diversified container terminal portfolio ...................................................................................26
Container leasing, management and sale ...............................................................................28

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