汇丰银行：亚洲造船行业研究报告2009年3月

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Too early to get back into shipbuilding
stocks; not an early cycle play
􀀗 Next negative catalyst is downward
earnings revisions on lower deliveries
􀀗 We lower earnings estimates for most of
the shipbuilders under our coverage,
except Samsung Heavy
Over the past four months, shipbuilding share prices have
stabilized on what we believe to be a relatively slight
recovery in freight rates (i.e. Baltic Dry Indices) after steep
declines. Additionally, shares have not reacted too
negatively to a slew of news on delivery postponements,
while Chinese shipbuilding stocks have reacted positively to
announced shipbuilding stimulus plans. We believe these
factors are giving a false sense that the shipbuilding shares
have bottomed and that the next leg is up.
We still see increasing announcements of delivery
postponements. There are no third party statistics to really
quantify the number of delivery deferments in the market.
Delivery activity appears to have begun to slow, and we
believe impending earnings downgrades will be the next
catalyst to put pressure on the shipbuilding shares.
Based on our analyses of historical trade patterns versus ship
deliveries, we have adjusted our earnings estimates for most
of the shipbuilders under our coverage (see page 2) and are,
on average, 16% and 19% below 2009 and 2010 consensus,
respectively.
Shares remain overvalued on a 2009 PB valuation basis,
with potential consensus downward earnings revisions going
forward. Shipbuilding is typically not a sector that recovers
early in an economic recovery. We maintain our negative
view on the sector.

Sailing over the edge 4
Delivery deferment & order cancellations to accelerate 4
Revise earnings estimates for shipbuilders 6
China introduces a stimulus package for its yards 8
No change to market conditions 8
Global order book 9
Dry bulk carrier market 10
Tanker market 11
Container carrier market 12
LNG carrier market 13
Chemical tanker market 14
New-build/second-hand ship market 15
Ship charter rates 16
Order flow and back log trends 17
Vessel demolitions 18
Global industrial production 19

Company profiles 20
Samsung Heavy (010140) 22
China State Shipbuilding (600150) 25
Hyundai Heavy (009540) 29
COSCO Singapore (COS) 33
Guangzhou Shipyard (317 / 600685) 36
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) 40
Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) 42
Disclosure appendix 46
Disclaimer 49

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