美国软件行业研究报告2009年7月

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Pay Attention to That Man
Behind The Curtain
Network Complexity and the Quest for Customer
Intimacy
SUMMARY
In this brief, we explore the impact of network complexity and competition for
customers on three classes of mission-critical telecommunications systems:
Operations Support Systems (OSS), Business Support Systems (BSS) and
Interoperability.
We believe increasing network complexity and evolving customer preferences will
accelerate capital flows into BSS (the domain of DOX, CMVT), OSS (where DOX
and TTIL are active) and Interoperability (where SVR and NSR compete).
OSS, BSS and Interoperability vendors often toil out of sight, cloaked by a curtain
separating user experience from the telecom engine. We urge investors looking to
leverage telecommunications evolution to seek out hidden opportunities by peeking
behind that curtain.
KEY POINTS
n BSSs are the systems closest to and interacting with customers. OSSs are
deployed to manage telecommunications networks, and interoperability systems
facilitate communication between diverse telecommunications systems. These
three system classes, interconnected and interdependent systems, are integral
to the provision of telecom services.
n As the march of technology expands the number of devices accessing telecom
networks, and as consumers' expectations for performance rise, network
complexity is driving demand for BSS, OSS and interoperability solutions and
accelerating the flow of capital toward providers of these solutions.
n Our favorite names in the BSS space include DOX and CMVT. In the OSS
space, DOX takes top marks, and in the interoperability segment, we rank SVR
highest. In the closely related contact center space, we give high marks to NICE
and VRNT.
n This report was inspired by our colleagues' paper, "The Genie Is Out of the
Bottle—Applications Separating from the Network," 6/11/2009, which explores
network-centric computing and industry segmentation. We also lean on the
intellect of Oppenheimer's Semiconductors and Components team for guidance
related to the implications of semiconductor technology advances.
n OSS, BSS and Interoperability companies likely to attract new capital often toil
in relative obscurity behind the curtain separating user experience from the
telecom engine. We urge investors to pursue hidden opportunities by peeking
behind the curtain.

Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS................................................................................................................................. 3
INTRODUCTION: PAY ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN: ............................................ 4
THE MAGICAL MACHINERY OF TELECOM (AND SOME COMPANIES KEEPING THE WHEELS OILED) ............................. 4
IT WAS THE BEST OF TIMES, IT WAS THE WORST OF TIMES .................................................................................. 5
2007: LAISSEZ LES BON TEMPS ROULEZ! ....................................................................................................... 5
2008: ANNUS HORRIBILIS .............................................................................................................................. 5
BSS: BUSINESS SUPPORT SYSTEMS ........................................................................................................ 7
“KEEP YOUR VENDORS CLOSE, BUT KEEP YOUR CUSTOMERS CLOSER.” ............................................................... 7
EXHIBIT 1: TELECOM CARRIERS’ ESTIMATED EXTERNAL BSS SPEND 2009-2013 ($BILLIONS) ............................. 8
EXHIBIT 2: KEY BSS VENDORS ...................................................................................................................... 8
SPOTLIGHT: AMDOCS (DOX, OUTPERFORM) ................................................................................................... 9
TECHNOLOGY SPAWNS A STRUGGLE FOR MIND SHARE .................................................................................... 9
SECRET OF A HEALTHY CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP: “THE CUSTOMER IS QUEEN” ................................................ 9
"THAT'S WHERE THE MONEY IS": BEHIND THE STRUGGLE FOR CUSTOMER INTIMACY: .........................................10
FIRST CONTACT: BSS MANNING THE FRONT LINES OF THE BATTLE FOR THE CUSTOMER ....................................10
SPOTLIGHT: NICE SYSTEMS (NICE, OUTPERFORM) .......................................................................................11
SPOTLIGHT: VERINT SYSTEMS (VRNT, OUTPERFORM .....................................................................................11
LESS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT: CRM OUTSOURCING MAY BE SLOWING ................................................12
SPOTLIGHT: COMVERSE TECHNOLOGY (CMVT, OUTPERFORM) .......................................................................12
SPOTLIGHT: CSG SYSTEMS (CSGS, PERFORM) ............................................................................................14
A STOCHASTIC SAUNTER DOWN TELECOM LANE ............................................................................................14
OSS: OPERATIONS SUPPORT SYSTEMS ..................................................................................................17
EXHIBIT 3: WORLDWIDE OSS REVENUE 2006 – 2013 ($BILLIONS) ..................................................................17
EXHIBIT 4: SELECTED OSS VENDORS ............................................................................................................18
EFFICIENT NETWORK HYPOTHESIS: THE SECRET IS IN THE OSS ......................................................................19
SOME THAT DOES NOT GLISTER IS GOLD .....................................................................................................20
CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER: SECURITY RAISES ITS PROFILE .......................................................................21
THE BREAKUP: APPLICATIONS AND THE NETWORK GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS .................................................22
THE SUM OF ALL FEARS: CARRIERS RESIST COMMODITIZATION .......................................................................22
INTEROPERABILITY ....................................................................................................................................25
TOWER OF BABEL 2.0: INTER-OPERABILITY RECONCILES A CONFUSION OF PROTOCOLS .....................................25
EXHIBIT 6: KEY INTEROPERABILITY VENDORS .................................................................................................25
SPOTLIGHT: SYNIVERSE TECHNOLOGY (SVR, OUTPERFORM) ..........................................................................25
“WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE” ......................................................................................26
APPENDIX 1: BILLING PRIMER ...................................................................................................................28
APPENDIX 2: OSS FUNCTIONAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................30
APPENDIX 3: BSS FUNCTIONAL FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................32
APPENDIX 4: NC COMPUTING – WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME .........................................................34
NC Computing Happening Now ...........................................................................................................35
APPENDIX 5: SELECT COMPANY SNAPSHOTS (ALPHABETICAL) ..........................................................37
COMPANY SNAPSHOT INDEX ....................................................................................................................47
TECHNOLOGY

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