摩根斯坦利：中国互联网行业研究报告2009年7月

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China Internet / Media
Seven Things that Mr. Market
May Have Missed…
Do not be fooled by macro debates: We see
investment opportunities amid macro controversies. 1)
Regardless of the shape of market recovery (V-, W-, or
U-shaped), online game leaders, such as Perfect World
and NetEase, offer hedged growth, with their
anti-cyclical nature, cheaper valuation (10-15x 2010e
P/E, on our estimates), and robust outlook (average
sales CAGR of 25-30% for the next three years). 2)
Despite our concerns over approaching hyperinflation,
we view adv leaders as key beneficiaries, as they enjoy
pricing power over inflation due to their gatekeeper
status. We consider both Sina and Focus Media
undervalued despite their merger overhang (Sina’s top
three adv sectors, i.e., auto, property, and financials, are
reaccelerating).
Taking advantage of Mr. Market’s Mood Swings: Mr.
Market is often generous, as he overreacts to negatives.
3) Among Chinese online game listcos, NetEase should
be the least affected by recent online game regulations,
which discounted most of its potential earnings catalysts,
including World of Warcraft, five new game launches,
and monetization of its email community (~70% of user
market share in China). 4) Mr. Market has failed to
reward high sales visibility – VisionChina guided for
35-50% YoY advertising sales growth in 2009, while
70-80% of China Digital TV’s projected sales for the next
three years have been secured. Both stocks are
mispriced, in our view, at only 9-13x our forecast 2010
earnings. 5) Mr. Market can sometimes misread
headline valuation – AirMedia, an advertising
gatekeeper at China’s airports, may make losses in
2009, yet its advertising sales should rebound 50% YoY
in 2H09 to shrink its P/E multiple to low-10x for 2010.
What’s new on the horizon? 6) Ctrip and Alibaba will
pass their cyclical troughs and see sales reaccelerating
in 2H09, as air ticketing and domestic market may soon
contribute 50%+ of their sales. 7) Taobao, the Chinese
equivalent of ‘eBay + Amazon.com’ and whose
transaction value may rise to ~2% of China’s retail sales
in 2009, is a looming archrival for Baidu.

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关键词：中国互联网行业 行业研究报告 互联网行业 中国互联网 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 行业 中国互联网 摩根斯坦利

感谢分享，顶一下！

thank you for your sharing

买不起 你是来跟大家分享的还是来抢钱啊

太疯狂了

请问还有哪些地方能弄到这些数据呢？
太QH了，买不起