德意志银行：欧洲传媒行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
BSkyB ................................................................................................. 4
Goldilocks moment coming closer - don't be bearish...............................................................4
Investment thesis .....................................................................................................................5
Recession….what recession?...................................................................................................5
Valuation: raising TP to 625p reflecting 13.5x CY11E PE ..........................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................6
Raising our TP to 625p..............................................................................................................6
Management incentivisation becoming more EPS focused .....................................................7
Risks ........................................................................................................................................9
FY09 Results Analysis .............................................................................................................10
Q409 Results Analysis of Sky KPIs .........................................................................................11
The Goldilocks moment ..........................................................................................................14
Jam tomorrow or jamais jam? ................................................................................................16
Sky+ vs HD…it’s different ......................................................................................................19
Broadband update...................................................................................................................21
Turning the corner...................................................................................................................21
The current state of play .........................................................................................................22
The move to full unbundling....................................................................................................23
Virgin Media TV deal?..............................................................................................................26
Eniro.................................................................................................. 28
Q2 Review: more about hitting targets from here on .............................................................28
Clean EBITDA inline DBe ........................................................................................................29
Strong online performance in Sweden....................................................................................29
Guidance intact – upgrades due to lower financial expenses .................................................29
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................30
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................30
Valuation ................................................................................................................................30
Risks ......................................................................................................................................30
IPSOS................................................................................................ 31
H1 results - outperforming the peers on organic revenues.....................................................31
Vivendi SA........................................................................................ 32
Growing pains; downgrading from Buy to Hold......................................................................32
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................33
Valuation: lowering TP to E21/share; risks ..............................................................................33
Risks ......................................................................................................................................33
Valuation ................................................................................................................................34
SoTP – limited upside to new E21/share target price .............................................................34
Multiples ................................................................................................................................35
Historic NAV discount range – fair value .................................................................................36
Risks ......................................................................................................................................37
WPP Group....................................................................................... 38
H1 margin miss: H2 and 2010 margin recovery in prospect ...................................................38
Forecast assumptions.............................................................................................................39

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