摩根斯坦利：中国造船行业研究报告2009年9月

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Investment Debates Summary....................................................................................................................................... 3
Debate #1: When Will the Shipbuilding Industry Recover?........................................................................................ 4
Global GDP Recovery to Boost Seaborne Trade …............................................................................................................................................... 4
Improved Sea Trade Outlook Will Only Speed Up Delivery of Existing Backlog, Not Introduce Strong New Demand ........................................... 4
New-building Price to Hit Bottom in Next 6-12 Months ........................................................................................................................................... 5
Shipping Lines to Be More Conservative ................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Shipbuilding Capacity Far Exceeds Demand.......................................................................................................................................................... 6
Anticipating U-shaped Recovery for Shipbuilding Industry ..................................................................................................................................... 8
What Could Change Our Industry View .................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Debate #2: What Drives Stock Prices? ....................................................................................................................... 11
Stock Driver Checks.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Debate #3: How to Value the Stocks?........................................................................................................................ 14
P/B Moving above Historical Median Level ........................................................................................................................................................... 14
Residual Income – Intrinsic Value throughout the Cycle....................................................................................................................................... 14
De-rating catalyst: Continuous Decline of Backlog Value ..................................................................................................................................... 15
Forward P/E Exceeds 10x, Not Cheap for Cyclical Names................................................................................................................................... 15
Summary of Rating, Price Target and Earnings Revisions ...................................................................................... 17
Retain Underweight on offshore listed shipyards .................................................................................................................................................. 17
Upgrade A-share to Equal-weight ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Summary of Price target & RI Value Changes ...................................................................................................................................................... 17
Earnings Revisions: Cutting Forecasts on Lower Margin Assumption.................................................................................................................. 19
Company Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 21
Guangzhou Shipyard Intl............................................................................................................................................. 22
Underweight, Price Target HK$12.9..................................................................................................................................................22
SOE profile enhances prospects and government support................................................................................................................................... 22
Small capacity an advantage during downturn...................................................................................................................................................... 23
Why Not Overweight ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Cut 2009/2010E Earnings but Raise 2011 Estimate............................................................................................................................................. 29
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. ................................................................................................................... 32
Underweight, Price Target S$0.81 ....................................................................................................................................................32
China State Shipbuilding............................................................................................................................................. 39
Equal-weight, Price Target Rmb81.4.................................................................................................................................................39
Reducing Earnings Forecast on Lower Margin Outlook........................................................................................................................................ 43
1H09 Earnings Recap – Negative Margin Surprise............................................................................................................................................... 43

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 造船行业 行业研究 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 中国 行业

1# bigfoot0518

价钱真高……

此人人品有问题

哦买糕的。。。

哎。。。。。。。。。。不说了

这个，存心要为难我们嘛。。