Buy online game and advertising leaders: We are
buyers on recent price weakness of online game leaders,
including NetEase, Perfect World and Giant, with strong
pipelines and greater valuation discounts due to
regulatory overhang. Among advertisers, we have
upgraded Sina and Focus Media to OW, and are buyers
of AirMedia, VisionChina and SinoMedia, the dominant
leaders in their “vertical” advertising markets.
Content is king: China tops the world in TV, Internet,
and mobile phone channels, which hunger for quality
content. Notably, 1) online games are the most
profitable content, with annual industry sales five times
those of China’s movie industry. 2) China’s movie box
office sales jumped nearly threefold over the past five
years (they could easily expand 5-10 times if intellectual
properties were resolved today in China). 3) China
Mobile’s music ringtone revenues soared fourfold in the
past three years. 4) Domestic cartoon production has
climbed 78% annually over the past five years.
Brand is queen: Chinese enterprises increasingly
appreciate the value of brands, which often lead to:
1) differentiation (e.g., Phoenix TV); 2) pricing power
(advertising leaders such as Sina and AirMedia often
raise advertising prices twice a year); 3) lower customer
acquisition costs and higher customer loyalty (Ctrip
derives ~80% of revenues from repeat customers);
4) brand extension (e.g., the Ali family); and 5) emotional
bonding with customers (e.g., Tencent’s QQ brand).
Upgrading China’s advertising leaders: We like them
due to: 1) advertising rebound (advertisers should scale
up their marketing budgets and brand-building initiatives
next year); 2) pricing power (advertising leaders should
resume price hikes next year); 3) operating leverage (we
expect concession and human capital costs to stay
steady next year); 4) restructuring of management
incentives (key management of Sina and Focus Media
bought ~10% of shares outstanding lately); and
5) conservative guidance (which could lead to upside
surprise in 3Q results).