瑞士信贷：美国汽车零部件行业研究报告2009年10月

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3Q09 Auto Earnings Toolkit
UPGRADE RATING
Upside, Likely; Surprise, Maybe ; Upgrading
TEN to Outperform
■
3Q09 Upside Likely: With North American light vehicle production up about
35% from Q2 to Q3, we think third quarter earnings are likely to top
consensus estimates for most of the companies in our automotive coverage
universe – so goes the power of operating leverage.
■
On Our Latest Revision to 3Q09 Estimates (which we have updated per
actual Q3 production and fine tuned with the help of our NA and Europe
Platform Monitor analysis), we think the most notable upside surprises
may come from TEN, SUP, and MGA.
■
On the flip side, we could see 3Q09 earnings fall short of consensus for
AXL and BWA.
■
What’s Priced In? While we suspect that sizable upside surprises will
move the stocks, we think follow through for some names may be limited.
Based on our latest Under the Hood DCF analysis, we think most stocks are
priced for 2011 US sales in the 13.5 to 14.0 million range, with operating
margins matching 5-year peak levels.
■
Ford Fits the Profile of a company where 3Q09 earnings may be better
than consensus, but where the valuation – in our view – is already reflecting
very robust revenue and profit margin expectations, potentially leaving less
room for upside post the quarter.
■
Upgrading TEN: TEN is one stock that may not only surprise to the upside
but may also have some room to follow through based on the market’s
margin expectations, which still leave room for upside.. We are upgrading to
Outperform from Neutral and raising our 12-month target price to $19.

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