2009年11月中国煤炭行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国煤炭行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：

The government is likely to adjust the
coal supply to stabilise prices
􀀗 Mine consolidation in Shanxi increases
coal companies’ control over supply
􀀗 OW(V) China Coal as volume growth
resumes and Yanzhou Coal to N(V);
maintain N(V) on Shenhua
Government prioritises power supply and profits. In
2008, China’s coal mining profits rose 96%, to RMB200bn,
while coal-fired power generators posted losses. We believe
the government will try to adjust the coal supply in an effort
to stabilise coal prices and ensure that power companies
remain profitable. Shanxi is restructuring its coal mining
industry. The consolidation, led by government-owned coal
enterprises, including China Coal, will increase coal
companies’ control over production and transportation.
Stable coal prices outlook. We expect thermal coal contract
prices in China to stabilise, rising 4% in both 2010 and 2011.
We expect the spot price to rise 3%, to RMB604/t, in 2010
and remain flat in 2011, following a 19% drop to RMB586/t
in 2009. In our view, significant coal price increases are
unlikely, given their impact on power companies’ profits.
Moreover, China is self-sufficient in coal – its September
2009 annualised coal production of 3.16bn tonnes exceeded
2008 coal consumption by 15%.
Upgrade China Coal to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V).
China Coal is our preferred play, based on the resumption of
volume growth and the benefits of coal mine consolidation
in Shanxi. At a 2010e PE of 13.2x, we find its valuation
compelling. We upgrade Yanzhou Coal to Neutral (V) and
raise our target price 47% (to HKD13.20 from HKD9) based
on a stabilising coal price outlook and the company’s growthenhancing
plan to acquire Felix Resources. We remain
Neutral (V) on Shenhua.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 煤炭行业 行业研究 中国煤炭 中国 研究报告 行业 煤炭

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