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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国零售行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：59
【目录或简介】：
Q3 EPS Momentum; Cyclical recovery not priced-in
Our Broadline retailers finished Q3 on a positive note, with strong sales
momentum entering the holiday season. Our Broadline sales index was positive
for both Sept + Oct, helped by a later BTS, seasonal weather, pent-up demand,
and up-for-grabs market share. Many of the department stores are now cycling
much easier y/y compares, expenses are well managed and inventories are lean,
setting up EPS acceleration into 2010. A recovery to historical EBIT margins is not
yet priced-in; thus, we see additional upside to JWN, SKS, JCP, TGT, and KSS.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD35.16 Buy
Saks Inc. (SKS.N),USD6.40 Buy
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD31.24 Buy
Target (TGT.N),USD50.45 Buy
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD56.97 Buy
Companies featured
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD35.16 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.80 1.84 2.52
P/E (x) 15.0 19.2 13.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 13.1 9.0
Saks Inc. (SKS.N),USD6.40 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -0.70 -0.54 -0.20
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) 101.0 18.1 9.1
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD31.24 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.54 1.03 1.60
P/E (x) 13.1 30.4 19.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 7.1 6.0
Target (TGT.N),USD50.45 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.86 3.00 3.63
P/E (x) 16.1 16.8 13.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 8.4 7.0
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD56.97 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.89 3.15 3.90
P/E (x) 14.5 18.1 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 8.4 7.0
Global Markets Research Company
Q3 Earnings accelerating on positive comps, expense & inventory controls
Q3 earnings growth for many of our retailers should improve vs. levels seen in Q2,
and many of our companies will likely raise their outlook for the full year. Some of
our companies recently raised Q3 EPS guidance, including KSS and JCP last week
and TGT in early October. Guidance for Q3/Q4 generally appears to be too
conservative. Our expectation for stronger EPS growth reflects a confluence of
positive factors: (1) cycling much easier y/y comparisons, particularly for higherend
retailers; (2) pent-up demand; (3) greatly improved cost discipline (expense
reductions, systems investments); (4) leaner inventory levels; and (5) over $21B in
up-for-grabs market share from competitor store closures and liquidations.
Cyclical earnings recovery not priced in
DB’s US equity strategy team led by Chief Strategist Binky Chadha believes that
current share prices reflect the recent upturn in earnings through Q2, though do
not yet reflect a cyclical recovery. They contend that on a normalized-earnings
basis, US shares look attractive, and they are recommending that investors buy
quality stocks in high-beta sectors. We agree with this assessment, as we expect
the improving economy to drive strong sales, EBIT margins and EPS growth
across most of our Broadline names, particularly our more discretionary retailers.
We expect to see significant EBIT margin expansion over 2009–2011, given strong
cost discipline, efficiency gains, and streamlined inventory levels, are bestpositioned
retailers should realize robust EBIT margin improvement—back
towards cyclical peak margins-- over the next two years as the economy and
sales improve. Based on our estimate of normalized earnings and a more
normalized P/E multiple, we still see significant upside to the shares of JWN, SKS,
JCP, KSS, and TGT.
California showing improvement
Several of our retailers, including JCP, KSS, TGT, and COST have recently
highlighted stronger sales trends in California. Recall that California was one of the
first states to be hit hard by the downturn in housing; the housing market there
now appears to be stabilizing. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller housing index,
the LA, San Diego, and San Francisco housing markets began showing signs of
stabilizing earlier this year. While housing prices are still declining year-on-year in
these markets, the declines are now in the high-single or low-double digit range
versus the -28% to -31% y/y rate of change experienced a year ago. The
liquidation of retailers like Mervyn’s and Gottschalk’s has also helped drive sales in
California for market-share gainers like KSS, which purchased and now occupies
about three dozen former Mervyn’s locations.
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