2009年11月土耳其汽车行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月土耳其汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
Alternative levels of recovery........................................................... 6
Stress-testing earnings to alternative levels of domestic auto market expansion.....................6
Are Turkish autos undervalued?............................................................ 7
Key multiples are significantly lower than global peers.............................................................7
New EPS assumptions not overoptimistic................................................................................7
Turkish companies are attractive beyond multiples ..................................................................8
After a year of incentives .................................................................. 9
2009 – year of immunity on incentives; 2010 – year of recovery.............................................9
Despite the crisis, positive momentum maintained..................................................................9
The post-crisis landscape – heading towards a year of recovery? ..........................................11
Exports – another story................................................................... 13
Exports should be considered as important as domestic sales ..............................................13
International markets also hurt................................................................................................13
Regional weakness reflected to Turkish exporters’ sales .......................................................14
Ford Otosan most adversely affected.....................................................................................14
Tofas enjoys safer take-or-pay agreements ............................................................................16
Scrap incentive possibility.............................................................. 18
Scrap incentive could be on the agenda in the future.............................................................18
European governments’ solution to down trend.....................................................................18
History of scrap incentives in Turkey ......................................................................................19
Potential impact of new scrap incentive in Turkey..................................................................20
A deep global comparison.............................................................. 21
Peer comparison beyond multiples.........................................................................................21
Turkish auto companies occupy top ranks..............................................................................21
Key revisions.................................................................................... 23
Valuation metrics ....................................................................................................................23
Domestic market assumptions ...............................................................................................23
Operational assumptions ........................................................................................................23
Valuations and risks ........................................................................ 25
We increase price targets 27% on average............................................................................25
DCF valuations ........................................................................................................................25
Multiples comparison .............................................................................................................26
Risks ......................................................................................................................................27
Running the numbers...................................................................... 28

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