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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国煤炭行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：106
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
The roadmap for coal ........................................................................ 5
Key points ................................................................................................................................5
2009: How did the market tighten so fast?...............................................................................5
2010: Positive on full year but see mid-year hiccup..................................................................8
Longer-term outlook: tight until 2013 at the earliest ...............................................................12
Coal: The big picture ....................................................................... 14
Demand ............................................................................................ 15
Key points ...............................................................................................................................15
Four key industries: power, steel, construction materials, and chemicals ..............................15
Demand recovery is in place: all four sectors are growing .....................................................16
Power output: strong into year-end ........................................................................................17
Steel, construction materials and chemicals...........................................................................20
Coal to chemicals: overcapacity now but future growth spot.................................................23
Coal consumption by province................................................................................................24
Coal set to remain a major source of energy ..........................................................................25
Supply............................................................................................... 27
Key points ...............................................................................................................................27
Supply concentrated in Northwest..........................................................................................27
Small mines policy: Shanxi production was hard hit ...............................................................28
Industry structure: diversified structure ..................................................................................31
Transportation ................................................................................. 32
Key point ................................................................................................................................32
Transportation set to remain tight for the medium term.........................................................32
Rail bottleneck: no real solution until third line is build............................................................34
Cost................................................................................................... 36
Key points ...............................................................................................................................36
Higher cost: tax and fees ........................................................................................................36
Higher cost: shift in production...............................................................................................38
Production cost and price support level..................................................................................38
Price .................................................................................................. 40
Tight supply-demand will lead to firmer prices .......................................................................40
Price forecast: higher until 2013 .............................................................................................41
China coal price along the seaborne coal chain ......................................................................43
Europe and South Africa future price point to higher coal prices............................................43
Regional coal price: increasingly driven by China spot............................................................44
Inventory ................................................................................................................................46
China coal pricing (contract and spot): how it works ..............................................................47
Risks ......................................................................................................................................48
Regulation ........................................................................................ 49
Policy and agencies ................................................................................................................49
China Shenhua Energy.................................................................... 50
China Coal Energy ........................................................................... 78
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