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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月欧洲汽车行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
Industry consolidation will likely lead to more partnerships/alliances
We believe the automotive industry is rife for consolidation, as utilization rates are
low and sales volumes will likely be below “pre-crisis” plans for several years to
come. Large M&A deals are nevertheless less likely, both in absence of striking
opportunities and the poor track record of such combinations in the past. We
however believe that industry cooperation will accelerate due to persistent
pressure on industry profitability. We take a look at the potential of a Daimler &
Renault “tie up” and identify significant opportunity.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Daimler (DAIGn.DE),EUR35.18 Buy
Renault SA (RENA.PA),EUR35.19 Buy
Companies featured
Daimler (DAIGn.DE),EUR35.18 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (EUR) 1.22 -1.24 2.97
P/E (x) 34.3 – 11.8
EV/EBITA (x) 13.8 – 7.3
Renault SA (RENA.PA),EUR35.19 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (EUR) 2.68 -9.35 0.62
P/E (x) 20.0 – 56.4
EV/EBITA (x) – – –
Global Markets Research Company
Eight points why investors should look at this possibility
We outline four benefits to both parties individually, and we actually see that a
closer cooperation could address some of the most pressing structural issues that
both companies face. While few of the points we made would change our
estimates for the next 12-24 months, we believe cooperation could address
fundamental strategic problems facing both companies.
What Daimler could bring to Renault
Renault faces several obstacles, in our view: 1) the company has no successful
presence in any segment above European C-segment, 2) steps on electric vehicles
but has limited hybrid know-how, 3) runs a significantly underutilized plant network
(mostly three Western plants), and 4) has a significantly leveraged balance sheet
with the likely growing need to sell some non-core assets such as its Volvo stake.
Renault (like the industry) needs to invest heavily in several technological areas in
which another large stable shareholder could help—could Abbar be interested in
this as well? In all instances Daimler has something to offer.
What Renault could bring to Daimler
Daimler equally faces several strategic problems: 1) Daimler lacks scale in any
segment below its C-Class, i.e., its Smart and A-/B- Class line-up. The A-/B-Class
lacks integration into other vehicles and getting part of these vehicles at a “mass
market cost structure” could close the competitive gap, 2) if Daimler would want
to grow its product offering in the B-segment, it has insufficient scale to follow the
market, 3) high R&D investments in fuel efficiency technology could require scale
to absorb, and 4) while already being the largest global truck producer, the 20%
stake in Volvo from RNO appears for sale.
Valuation/Risks
Our target price of EUR45 for Renault is based on an average of the following
methods: i) a P/E of 10x for the core business, ii) a 35% discount on book value
(restated with current share price of Nissan and Volvo), and iii) an EV/Sales of 20%
(in line with long-term trend for mass market OEMs) (see pp. 18-19). Our raised
target price of EUR46 (previously EUR40) for Daimler is based on a blend of: i)
SOTP, ii) capital-return-based model, and iii) historical multiple analysis (see pp. 11-
13). We rate both stocks a Buy on valuation. Risks in both cases are linked to
volume declines, pricing discipline, and adverse FX developments (USD for
Daimler and JPY for Renault).
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