图表目录
图表1:中金主要宏观指标及商品价格预测....................................................................................................4
图表2:煤炭及金属价格预测调整-小幅上调铜、铝、黄金、秦皇岛现货价格预测.............................................5
图表3:盈利和评级调整-上调10年部分公司盈利预测..................................................................................6
图表4:金属及矿业估值表...........................................................................................................................7
图表5:港股目标价....................................................................................................................................7
图表6:山西省煤矿复产进度缓慢对国内主焦煤(肥煤和焦煤)的影响更大......................................................9
图表7:电煤消耗创出新高,库存显著低于正常水平......................................................................................10
图表8:中国和全球的日均粗钢产量都将稳中有升.........................................................................................10
图表9:煤炭进口量继续维持高位................................................................................................................10
图表10:房地产月新开工面积高速增长........................................................................................................11
图表11:净利润对煤价的敏感度:平煤、中煤、西煤和兖煤对煤价最为敏感....................................................13
图表12:煤炭A股公司主要经营指标.............................................................................................................14
图表13:煤炭H股公司主要经营指标............................................................................................................15
图表14:伦敦、上海、纽约库存不断上升.....................................................................................................16
图表15:通胀预期推动铜价走高..................................................................................................................16
图表16:各国PMI继续复苏.........................................................................................................................17
图表17:新订单/库存比值上升表明补库存正在进行......................................................................................17
图表18:全球(除中国外)电解铝产量回升缓慢...........................................................................................17
图表19:12月以来铝的注销仓单比例继续上升.............................................................................................17
图表20:LME欧洲库存自9月份开始下降.....................................................................................................18
图表21:铝的forward curve为期货升水........................................................................................................18
图表22:10年美元指数易涨难跌 通胀预期推高金价.........................................................................18
图表23:强烈通胀下黄金抗通胀作用明显 中国CPI分项指数已经开始大幅转正...............................19
图表24:铜价每变动1%,江铜盈利变动1.4%.............................................................................................20
图表25:黄金股随着通胀上升还会迎来上涨.................................................................................................20
图表26:金价每变动1%,中金黄金盈利变动2.1%,山东黄金盈利变动1.94%...............................................21
图表27:金价每变动1%,紫金矿业盈利变动0.83%,招金矿业盈利变动1.81%..............................................21
图表28:铝价每变动1%,中国铝业盈利变动8.7%,神火股份盈利变动2.3%.................................................21
图表29:中铝H股与铝价9月份开始明显脱钩...............................................................................................22
图表30:中铝的高敏感度使其在乐观情况下的估值水平有望大幅下降.............................................................22
图表31:中国铝业主要假设........................................................................................................................24
图表32:江西铜业主要假设........................................................................................................................24
图表33:紫金矿业主要假设........................................................................................................................24
图表34:山东黄金主要假设........................................................................................................................25
图表35:招金矿业主要假设........................................................................................................................25
图表36:中金黄金主要假设........................................................................................................................25
图表37:中国铝业财务概要........................................................................................................................27
图表38:江西铜业财务概要........................................................................................................................29
图表39:紫金矿业财务概要........................................................................................................................31
图表40:招金矿业财务概要........................................................................................................................33
图表41:山东黄金财务概要........................................................................................................................35
图表42:中金黄金财务概要........................................................................................................................37
图表43:中煤能源A股的财务指标................................................................................................................38
图表44:中煤能源H股的财务指标................................................................................................................39
图表45:中国神华A股的财务指标................................................................................................................40
图表46:中国神华H股的财务指标................................................................................................................41
图表47:兖州A股的财务指标......................................................................................................................43
图表48:兖州H股的财务指标......................................................................................................................44
图表49:西山煤电财务概要........................................................................................................................45
图表50:开滦股份财务概要........................................................................................................................46
图表51:兰花科创财务概要........................................................................................................................47
图表52:平煤股份财务概要........................................................................................................................48
图表53:神火股份财务概要........................................................................................................................49
图表54:福山能源财务概要........................................................................................................................50
|