2010年美国银行业前景展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国银行业前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：72
        【目录或简介】：
Executive Summary
■ While the group is not expensive by historical standards, we remain selective
given uncertainty regarding the broader macroeconomic backdrop and elevated
credit costs, as well as looming regulatory reform. Fundamental headwinds are
expected to continue in 2010, although we expect to see some relief in terms of
provision levels next year. A risk for the group lies in the regulatory and political
scrutiny of the group, which remains high. Despite the recent run in the group since
the March trough, valuations are not expensive by historical standards (at 1.4 times
tangible book value vs. 10-year median of closer to 3.0 times). But given fundamental
headwinds, we remain selective with Outperform ratings on JPMorgan Chase (JPM),
U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Bank of America (BAC).
■ We remain somewhat cautious on the industry outlook for 2010. Revenues will
be pressured by shrinking loan balances and cyclically weaker fee and trading
revenues. While credit quality trends will remain elevated, growth in nonaccrual loans
is slowing which is an incremental position. Consequently, we expect provisions to fall
in 2010, as reserves will be drawn down over the course of the year. Sustained
improvement in delinquency and loss trends in consumer portfolios and some relief in
unemployment levels will be signals for us to get more positive on the overall outlook
for the industry.
■ Pending regulatory changes will be an overhang on the group for the
foreseeable future, particularly scrutiny on the large cap banks. We expect
continued higher capital requirements which will make it incrementally more difficult for
banks to earn an adequate return on capital. Overall, we would expect that the capital
standards will require higher levels of capital, perhaps a Tier 1 ratio of about 8% as
compared with a current (de facto) 6% requirement. Additionally, capital composition
will be key, as 75% or more will likely be required to be Tier 1 common equity.
Furthermore, there will be continued measures in the area of “consumer protection,”
■ Relative stability has been restored to the financial system through various
government programs. As the banks begin to exit government support, regulators
have encouraged the raising of supplemental capital. Consequently, common equity
ratios at the banks are at historic highs. The larger banks have largely exited the
TARP preferred program and raised a substantial amount of capital, which relieves a
major overhang on the group. While the large banks have been successful with
several waves of capital raising, undoubtedly, more capital support is likely needed for
the regional players. And we are likely to see industry consolidation to continue with
FDIC-assisted deals and additional bank failures. We would expect to see some
“takeunders” of troubled companies, however, we would not expect to see a significant
number of deals done at historic premiums, given the uncertain economy and current
level of industry valuations.
■ Given our 2010 outlook, we remain selective. We continue to recommend JPM and
USB as we think that they are the best positioned players of our large cap universe,
and importantly are poised to return to normalized earnings well before peers.
Furthermore, we are recommending Bank of America, as the current risk/reward on
the shares appears attractive at current levels. Based on our normalized earnings
forecasts, BAC is the most inexpensive large cap bank in our universe trading at about
6.1 times normalized earnings vs. the median large cap bank at 7.6 times, and book
value growth will be strong in 2010. We remain on the sidelines with those companies
that we think will take longer to achieve normalized earnings power, including Citi
which is rightsizing its businesses. Additionally, we think that 2010 could be a
challenging year for WFC as the company will have to manage through the costs of its
mortgage portfolio, both commercial and residential. We are somewhat more positive
on PNC as the company benefits from its equity market sensitivity, as well as its
recent acquisition of NCC; however, some vulnerability to revenue trends coupled with
full valuation keeps us from getting more aggressive on the shares here.
■ Risks to our current outlook for the banking industry lies in the potential for more
meaningful deterioration in commercial credit than we are currently anticipating.
Separately, the potential for continued regulatory and political scrutiny of the large
banks remains high in our view. Potential regulation including revisions to capital
requirements or reserve methodologies remains an uncertainty. Additionally, political
scrutiny of financial institutions considered “systematically important” or “too big to fail”
will likely cause some additional headline risk in 2010. .

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关键词：行业前景 前景展望 美国银行 银行业 Requirements 美国 前景 展望 银行业

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