【出版时间及名称】:2010年1月美国铁路行业研究报告
【作者】:加拿大丰业银行
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:114
【目录或简介】:
Contents
Rail Renaissance Still On Track 3
Report Highlights 3
Summary and Investment Recommendations 5
1-Sector Outperform Rated Stocks 5
2-Sector Perform Rated Stocks 5
Market Weight Outlook on the Sector 7
Rail Renaissance Still On Track 9
Pricing Has Been Better Than Resilient – It Remains Robust 9
Volumes Have Stabilized and Are Showing Modest Signs Of Recovery 10
Cost Performance Has Shown Surprising Variability & Responsiveness 10
Operating Leverage Could Surprise to the Upside as Volume Returns 13
Industry Balance Sheets Strong; Share Buybacks Poised to Return 13
Modal Share Gains Offer a Secular Growth Opportunity 15
Greater Fuel Efficiency and Lower Emissions Argue in Favour of Rail 16
Moving Traffic from Truck to Rail Reduces Highway Congestion 17
Aging Workforce Poses a Serious Challenge to the Trucking Sector 18
Capturing the Domestic Intermodal Opportunity Requires Terminal Infrastructure 19
Panama Canal Expansion Has the Potential to Shift Trade Patterns 19
Market Outlook 21
Mixed Outlook for Bulk Commodities 22
Merchandise Carloadings Should Benefit From Inventory Re-stocking 23
Domestic Intermodal Has Been More Resilient Than International 25
WTI Oil Price Expected to Average US$87.50/Barrel in 2010 25
Currency Expected to be a Headwind for the Canadian Railroads 26
Risks 27
Implications of the STB Reauthorization Act Will Take Several Years to Emerge 27
Climate Change Legislation a Double-Edged Sword 28
Positive Train Control – An Unfunded Mandate 29
Other Risk Factors 29
Canadian National Railway Company – A Well-Run Machine 33
Company Profile and System Map 34
Investment Highlights 35
Financial Forecast 38
Target Price and Rating 39
Risks 39
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited – Unique Bulk Franchise 45
Company Profile and System Map 46
Investment Highlights 47
Financial Forecast 50
Target Price and Rating 52
Risks 52
CSX Corporation – Operational Improvement Interrupted 59
Company Profile and System Map 60
Investment Highlights 61
Financial Forecast 63
Target Price and Rating 64
Risks 64
Norfolk Southern Corporation – The Dark Horse in This Race 71
Company Profile and System Map 72
Investment Highlights 73
Financial Forecast 76
Target Price and Rating 78
Risks 78
Union Pacific Corporation – Best Sources of Economy-Insensitive Growth 85
Company Profile and System Map 86
Investment Highlights 87
Financial Forecast 90
Target Price and Rating 91
Risks 91
Appendix 1 – Glossary 97
Appendix 2 – Summary of the Surface Transportation Board Reauthorization Act of 2009 99
Appendix 3 – CN Management Resumes 102
Appendix 4 – CP Management Resumes 103
Appendix 5 – CSX Management Resumes 104
Appendix 6 – NSC Management Resumes 105
Appendix 7 – UNP Management Resumes 106
Appendix 8 – BNI Description and System Map 107