2010年1月美国日用消费品零售行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国日用消费品零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：

Survey gives us renewed confidence in our positive
dollar store thesis as the economy improves. Our
new AlphaWise consumer survey updates one we
conducted a year ago (see Trade Down Is Not Over, and
It’s Sticky, Feb. 27, 2009). Today, we conclude the
market is too focused on the potential of a “tradeout”
(shoppers leaving dollar stores in a recovery), as
consumers who feel financially better off report that they
intend to shop the channel more. The real risk to sales,
we think, is in a “pullback” (less shopping by the
channel’s core lower-income consumer), as consumers
who feel financially worse off intend to shop less.
Overweight Dollar Tree and Dollar General; more
positive on Family Dollar. We expect DLTR and DG
to comp in the mid-single digits and FDO in the low
single digits. DLTR again topped our survey of
customers shopping intentions. We are initiating
coverage of DG at Overweight based on companyspecific
drivers to generate sales and margin expansion
(see our note today). We are more positive on FDO but
remain Equal-weight due to greater sales/margins risks.
What's new: We conducted a survey of 2,500
consumers on their dollar store habits and intentions.
We also did a deep dive into the companies’ margin
structures, which analyzes margins headwinds/tailwinds
and longer-term opportunities.
Key company-specific findings: 1) DG has the
largest growth opportunity in 2010. Frequent customers’
self-reported intention to shop indicates only a net 3%
increase, but we believe company-specific initiatives
can drive the comp to mid-single digits.
2) DLTR shoppers have the strongest intention to
increase spending with a net 14% increase. We also
believe operating margins will be up (contrary to bears)
in 2010 and are raising our estimate to $4.06 from $3.97.
3) FDO could succeed in a low-income consumer
recovery, but the next two quarters could be choppy.

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