2010年美国饮料与烟草行业前景展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国饮料与烟草行业前景展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36        
【目录或简介】：
Happy New Year! Here’s to hoping 2010 finally delivers strong relative performance for
PepsiCo shares – our top pick in the group. Granted, delays in bottler deal closing, a
limited ability to protect earnings with share repurchase, and lower visibility on the
promotional environment domestically has created uncertainty. Against this, however,
one must consider the core earnings power of Frito-Lay, continued strength at Pepsi
International and ultimately the right strategic move for domestic Beverages –
consolidation. Fundamentals will out, as they say, and with them, PEP’s compelling
valuation will drive outperformance. We look to reported 2009 results, a late Q1 deal
close and a spring investor update as positive catalysts in the coming months.
Our key bull case points for PEP:
􀂄 High visibility of earnings growth. PEP stands out in our coverage in terms of
fundamental management of the business, defensive earnings, growth opportunities
ahead, and balance sheet flexibility (pro forma net debt/EBITDA of 1.3x). It has leverage
to a global consumer rebound, but is also arguably best-equipped to weather
macroeconomic storms. The business is anchored by a best-in-class global snacks
franchise (7% average EBIT growth for the past three years). We look for lower input
costs and deal savings to provide margin flexibility to invest behind
promotion/innovation. For long-term investors, we believe the path to low double digit
earnings growth is secure, based on mid single digit annual revenue growth, modest
margin leverage, and share repurchases which will resume in 2010.
􀂄 US bottler acquisitions should improve growth of the lagging Beverage business
(which has been a valuation overhang in 2008-09), while higher than forecast cost
savings present profit upside potential longer term. On our 2010 estimates, each
additional $100mn of merger synergies equates to $0.04 EPS upside. If long-term
synergies are ultimately closer to $1bn than $300mn, a “normalized” EPS base might be
closer to $4.50-4.60 vs. our $4.16 estimate for 2010. This shows the magnitude of longterm
earnings power, as route-to-market and the production/fleet infrastructure are
optimized.
Against higher earnings estimates, valuation should also improve once the bottler
acquisitions close, and investors incorporate their synergies and growth contribution. In
particular, we would look for PEP to re-assess its targets in the post-closing period, as it
also begins to significantly step-up share repurchases.
Other positive catalysts for 2010 –
􀂄 Stable high single digit profit growth (6-7%) by Frito Lay, based on value offerings.
􀂄 Overall COGS deflation in 2010
􀂄 Greater business reinvestment (enabled by synergies) to accelerate US Beverage
revenue growth
􀂄 Lower debt costs – We originally modeled average acquisition debt cost of 6.5%
compared to $3+ billion issuance which could be closer to 4-5%
􀂄 Higher leverage and share buybacks than expected – our $3bn share repurchase (or
3% of float) vs. none last year could prove conservative.

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关键词：行业前景 烟草行业 前景展望 Acquisitions Contribution 美国 行业 前景 饮料 烟草

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