2010年1月美国汽车零部件行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国汽车零部件行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：87
        【目录或简介】：
More Upside Surprises Likely. The focus in this month’s Zero to Sixty
report is our earnings preview for 4Q09. Our fourth quarter estimates are
above consensus for every company in our coverage universe.
■
The Sweet Spot. With production on the rise in both North America and
Europe, and with cost structures still generally buttoned-down from last
year’s devastating downturn, we are in the sweet spot for sector earnings
momentum.
■
Europe Output Better; Raising EPS Estimates. While most companies
and industry observers still fear payback in Europe, it looks like production in
the fourth quarter was quite solid, rising about 11% vs. 4Q08, vs. our
forecast increase of 8%. In light of the stronger Europe output, as well as
other updates and adjustments, we have bumped up our estimates for most
companies, including: F, AXL, BWA, HAR, MGA, SUP, and TRW (Exhibit 1)
■
Focus on the Contribution. As was the case last quarter, we think
investors will be focused on the contribution margin on incremental revenue,
as production ramped up from Q3 to Q4. In general, our forecast contribution
margin for 4Q is lower than what we observed in 3Q. If the companies can
match the third quarter performance, the upside surprises vs. consensus
could be substantial (Exhibit 2).
■
Will the Stocks Respond? We think one way that investors will judge the
fourth quarter results is by comparing the reported 4Q09 EBIT margin for
each company with the longer-term margin expectations that are currently
underpinning stock prices. Our DCF model should help facilitate this process.
We note that most companies are priced for 2011 margins that are about 1
to 2 percentage points higher than what we expect the companies to print for
the fourth quarter (Exhibit 3). Thus, if the upside surprises are large enough,
there could be room for further appreciation in the group.
■
Also Included in This Report:
Platform Monitor – 4Q09 production results for NA and Europe look
favorable for SUP, JCI, BWA, and TRW. Platform exposure is less favorable
for AXL, HAR, and TEN.
Under the Hood – Our latest DCF analysis suggests that shares of LEA and
AXL remain undervalued, while shares of MGA, HAR, and SUP look
overvalued.
Consumer Watch – On this month’s scorecard we upgrade Income Growth
and Used Vehicle Prices, leaving the consumer in better shape than last
year; vehicle demand should improve nicely vs. 2009.

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关键词：行业研究报告 汽车零部件 研究报告 行业研究 零部件 美国 研究报告 行业 汽车零部件

有钱人啊 这t m d的太贵了。。。。