2010年1月澳大利亚保险行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月澳大利亚保险行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：62
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Battle lines changing......................................................................... 4
Executive summary...................................................................................................................4
Why have new competitors arrived?............................................... 7
Summary..................................................................................................................................7
A quick Personal Lines snapshot ..............................................................................................7
Defenders, Contenders, Aggressors and Experimenters..........................................................9
Motor presents an attractive ROE opportunity .......................................................................10
Rapid change in the mega online marketplace .......................................................................11
Who are the Aggressors?................................................................ 13
Summary................................................................................................................................13
Exactly who are the Aggressors?............................................................................................13
A brief comment on Progressive ............................................................................................14
Overview of South Africa’s GI industry ...................................................................................15
Industry structure, profitability and distribution.......................................................................16
Why has Direct distribution taken off in South Africa?............................................................17
Can Outsurance (Youi) go the distance in Australia?...............................................................19
Will Telesure (Auto & General) press the pedal in Australia? ..................................................22
Do the South African success factors apply to Australia?.......................................................24
Can they compete effectively on pricing? ..................................... 25
Summary................................................................................................................................25
Motor pricing – back to basics ................................................................................................25
Web-bots – changing the landscape, not the game................................................................26
Cherry-picking – an opportunity for the Aggressors................................................................28
Can they compete without scale?.................................................. 31
Summary................................................................................................................................31
Weighing up the claims imbalance – a case study..................................................................31
Is bigger better when it comes to expenses?.........................................................................33
What impact could they have?....................................................... 35
Summary................................................................................................................................35
Premium growth – majors will need to work hard to defend share ........................................35
Possible headwinds for the Defenders’ widely expected GI margin recovery........................37
Pulling it all together – earnings implications for IAG and SUN...............................................39
Valuations and EPS trends ............................................................. 42
EPS momentum......................................................................................................................42
Long-term P/E trends..............................................................................................................42
Valuation assumptions ............................................................................................................44
Risks ......................................................................................................................................44
GI in pictures.................................................................................... 45
Price performance...................................................................................................................45
Earnings momentum...............................................................................................................46
Dividend momentum ..............................................................................................................47
Returns on equity....................................................................................................................48
Capital management ...............................................................................................................49
Premium growth outlook ........................................................................................................50
Insurance trading results.........................................................................................................52
Running the numbers...................................................................... 53
Running the numbers – IAG....................................................................................................53
Running the numbers – QBE...................................................................................................54
Running the numbers – SUN...................................................................................................55

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 保险行业 澳大利亚 研究报告 研究报告 行业 澳大利亚