【出版时间及名称】:2010年1月韩国旅游行业研究报告
【作者】:三星证券
【文件格式】:PDF
【页数】:35
【目录或简介】:
Cyclical growth, structural risk
Industry upturn priced in
Travel
(NEUTRAL)
Reinstating coverage with NEUTRAL rating: We reinstate coverage of the
travel sector with a NEUTRAL rating, and of Hana Tour and Modetour Network
with HOLD ratings and six-month target prices of KRW46,000 and KRW27,000,
respectively. With Hana Tour trading at 27x 2010 P/E and Modetour at 22x, we
believe favorable macro factors are priced in and no additional premium is
warranted. We feel the industry possesses long-term growth potential, but expect
the profitability of travel agencies to improve more slowly than outbound
passenger traffic growth—and thus fall short of the market’s expectations.
Travel industry turning up: Outbound passenger traffic from Korea has
rebounded recently as consumer sentiment for overseas travel has improved on
favorable macro factors such as a strengthening won and expectations for
economic recovery. Traffic at Hana Tour and Modetour soared 52% and 75% y-y,
respectively, in December (vs total outbound traffic growth for Korea of 37% y-y).
The release of pent-up demand should sustain outbound passenger traffic, which
we expect to rise 23% this year.
Long-term growth potential intact…: We estimate that the number of
outbound travelers from Korea will rise 22.5% in 2010 and 13.6% in 2011. We
expect the travel industry to continue to grow on: 1) increasing leisure time—
thanks to a five-day workweek, low birth rates, and population aging; 2)
favorable government policies—such as the observance of time off on weekdays
for holidays falling on weekends and a Korea-China visa waiver; and 3) declines
in airfares as a result of open skies and growth in the low-cost carrier segment.
…but structural changes bad for travel agencies: Even if outbound
departures return to 2007’s peak level, travel agency margins are unlikely to.
Companies will need more customers to break even as their profitability
deteriorates because of: 1) airlines’ zero commission policies; 2) a likely pricing
war with online agencies over volume incentives; 3) increasing direct sales of air
tickets by airlines; and 4) a growing preference for customized travel over
package tours.
Qualitative growth needed: If the industry is to return to high growth and
overcome its cyclicality, we believe it needs to secure qualitative growth through:
1) increased negotiating power within its value chain; 2) enhanced online
systems; and 3) more diversity of customized-tour products. Long term, travel
agencies should benefit as foreign and low-cost airlines gain market share,
creating more competition within the airline industry. It remains to be seen,
however, if wholesale travel agencies accustomed to mass production of a few
products will be able to evolve into enterprises offering a variety of products in
small amounts and serving diverse individual needs.
Zero commissions a double-edged sword: Airlines’ increasing adoption of
zero-commission policies is likely to deal a blow to small travel agencies that rely
on ticketing for much of their sales. The impact on large wholesale travel agencies
with economies of scale should be limited, as they should continue to receive
volume incentives from airlines and gain market share during consolidation.
They are unlikely to be completely unaffected, however, as: 1) ticketing will no
longer meaningfully help their profitability; and 2) shutdowns of small retail
travel agencies should shrink the distribution channel market. Wholesale
agencies will likely have to share volume incentives with franchises.