2010年2月中国港口行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国港口行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：

Container terminals: look set to recover on strong volume and ASP growth.
􀂃 Container manufacturing has bottomed, potentially benefiting CP & CMH.
􀂃 Top pick: CMH. BUY DP, as it is the only defensive port in our universe.
􀂃 Upgrade CP to BUY, as container leasing and manufacturing catch up.
China ports: recovery on track
Container terminal: gains from volume and ASP improvement
National container throughput fell 5.3% in 2009, with the decline having narrowed
in 2H09. We expect the national port terminal to record 8-9% container volume
growth in 2010, given the recovery in foreign trade and given China PMI’s new
export orders have stabilised. We estimate ASP will rise 2-5%+ in 2010, mainly
due to an improved product mix. Our channel checks with Shanghai Port suggest
that the percentage of empty boxes returned was 26% at end-4Q09, versus the
33% recorded in 1Q09.
Bulk terminal: hovering at the high water mark – BUY DP
Bulk imports recorded strong throughput growth in 2009. We expect bulk
throughput to continue to see solid growth on robust domestic demand. We
believe Dalian Port (DP) will benefit most from the stabilising bulk throughput
growth, as it has an oil terminal in its portfolio while a bulk terminal is due to be
injected from its parentco.
Container manufacturing has bottomed: potentially benefiting
CP & CMH
Our recent visits to China International Marine Containers Group (CIMC; 000039
CH; CP: RMB13.52; Not Rated), which is an associate of both COSCO Pacific
(CP) and China Merchants Holdings (CMH), confirmed dry-box orders have
recovered since October 2009. According to management, CIMC’s dry-box order
will be about 400,000-500,000 TEUs in 2010, compared with total dry-box orders
of 45,000 TEUS in 2009. Thus, we expect the resumed production of dry boxes to
boost the associate incomes of CP and CMH.
BUY CMH – our top pick; upgrade CP to BUY
For 2010 and 2010, we raise our EPS estimates 1.8% and 5.6% for CMH and
2.8% and 6.7% for CP, based on the 2009 container throughput volume and
increased contribution from CIMC. In our SoTP valuations for CMH and CP, we
use a target 15x 2010 P/E (on Bloomberg consensus earnings) to value their
respective CIMC’s stake, which is in line with its historical trading average. We
raise CMH’s TP to HKD33.75 (from HKD33.11) and CP’s TP to HKD14.30 (from
HKD11.88).
We reiterate BUY on CMH, as we expect the port giant to benefit most in our
sector universe from the recovery in China port terminals. CP trades at 14.1x
2010E P/E and 1.1x P/BV, around the low end of peer valuation (Exhibit 11). We
upgrade CP to BUY, from Hold, on anticipated earnings recovery and as
valuations look attractive. We maintain BUY on DP at a TP of HKD4.10, given its
defensive portfolio and also valuations look undemanding.
Daisy Zhang, CFA
+8621 6096 9025
daisy.zhang@asia.bnpparibas.com
Simon Hao
+8621 6096 9029
simon.hao@asia.bnpparibas.com
PREPARED BY BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES ASIA
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION

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关键词：港口行业研究报告 行业研究报告 研究报告 港口行业 中国港口 研究报告 recovery leasing growth volume

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