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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国煤炭行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：56
【目录或简介】：
􀀗 Industry consolidation increases miners’
control over production and transport
􀀗 We raise our 2010 coal price increase
forecasts to 17% and 18% for thermal
and coking
􀀗 We upgrade China Shenhua and
Yanzhou Coal to OW(V) from N(V)
Consolidation continues. The Chinese government’s efforts
to consolidate the coal mine industry, which started in 2009 in
Shanxi, are expanding to the rest of China. This will increase
coal companies’ control over production and transportation.
In 2009, Shanxi Province and Shenhua cut their coal transport
volumes to maintain prices when demand fell in early 2009,
but raised them again when demand recovered in 4Q09, with
the Qinhuangdao price jumping 17.4%, to RMB675/t, from a
stable RMB575/t during 1Q-3Q09.
We raise our coal price estimates. The Qinhuangdao price
surpassed RMB800/t in January on strong demand due to
severe cold weather and a jump in industrial usage. Industry
consolidation should enable coal mining companies to avoid
severe price corrections, even during the slow season. We
have therefore raised our coal price growth assumptions
and now expect the thermal coal spot price to rise 17% (to a
2010 average of RMB700/t) and the coking coal price to rise
18% (with limited new supply due to consolidation in Shanxi).
We upgrade China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal to OW(V)
from N(V), as recent H-share coal stock prices have fallen 24%
since their January peak). Yanzhou Coal stands to benefit from
spot price strength in 2010 and earnings accretion from the
Felix takeover. For China Shenhua, we base our upgrade on
expected volume growth, a higher coal price outlook, and
the company’s rising control over inner China’s coal supply.
We reiterate our OW(V) on China Coal and Fushan Energy.
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