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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国零售行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
12 February 2010
Broadline Earnings Preview
'10 outlook likely nears Street,
select valuations compelling
Bill Dreher Jr
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-5427
bill.dreher@db.com
Lindsey Bell
Research Associate
(+1) 212 250-8343
lindsey.bell@db.com
Shane Higgins
Associate Analyst
(+1) 212 250-6620
shane.higgins@db.com
4Q EPS out like a lion, but shares start 2010 like a lamb
Q4 EPS should be rather anticlimactic, as many retailers pre-announced
encouraging Q4 EPS & FY10 guidance should approach investor expectations. Our
Call into earnings: we believe JCP mngt will be generally comfortable with
consensus, while valuation is not demanding at 11x FY10 EPS. We like JCP's
risk/reward, as downside is limited. While catalyst timing (pos comps) is uncertain,
the pieces are in place. We also believe JWN, TGT & KSS (top picks) present very
attractive entry points, already posting positive comps.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD33.81 Buy
Target (TGT.N),USD49.16 Buy
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD49.44 Buy
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD24.79 Buy
Companies featured
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD33.81 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.80 1.94 2.63
P/E (x) 15.0 17.4 12.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 12.7 8.5
Target (TGT.N),USD49.16 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.86 3.26 3.89
P/E (x) 16.1 15.1 12.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 7.6 6.5
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD49.44 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.89 3.18 3.77
P/E (x) 14.5 15.5 13.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 7.4 6.1
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD24.79 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.54 1.04 1.61
P/E (x) 13.1 23.8 15.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 5.6 4.8
Global Markets Research Company
Strong margin improvement to drive robust Q4 EPS growth
Q4 sales started weaker-than-expected in Nov, but finished strong with Dec &
Jan, as pent-up demand drove sales of more discretionary items. Industry-wide,
inventories per sq. ft. were much better aligned to start 4Q, & down dramatically
for the Department stores (with SKS -21%, DDS -19%, JCP -11% & JWN -11%).
Combined with a rationalized competitive environment and reduced operating
expenses, this should yield impressive y/y EBIT margin improvement in Q4,
particularly for SKS (1,491 bps), DDS (836 bps), JWN (546 bps) & TGT (211 bps).
Based on this, several companies guided Q4 EPS higher, including TGT, JCP, KSS,
JWN, M, & SHLD.
‘10 outlook likely appropriately conservative—though approaching the Street
Despite improving trends, which have allowed retailers to grow incrementally
more optimistic through the year, we anticipate mgmt will provide conservative
'10 guidance. Given a cautious consumer, unemployment stubbornly high around
10% and limited 2H:10 visibility, cycling better comps and margin gains,
management’s 2010 EPS outlook should be prudent, positioning the upper end of
their guidance at or just below consensus estimates – as expected. We are
generally more bullish than the Street on FY10 EPS growth, and for 13 of our 18
companies, we are above Consensus, and believe actual FY10 results will still beat
us.
Broadline Retail valuations remain attractive
While the shares of many of our companies greatly outperformed the S&P 500 in
2009 (Fig. 9, pg. 8), valuations remain below the market & historical averages on
both a P/E & EV/EBITDA basis, and represent compelling opportunities now. Yearto-
date, our more discretionary names have under-performed the market, while
more defensively-oriented companies have outperformed - basically the reverse of
last year. We continue to see considerable upside to some of our best-positioned
discretionary department stores like JWN, TGT, and KSS, which continue to gain
market share with positive comps, despite a cautious consumer. These retailers
can also drive profitable top-line growth through unit growth. In addition, share
buybacks at these attractive valuations could further drive FY10 EPS growth. TGT
recently resumed its $10B repo authorization (on hold since Nov. ’08) with JWN &
KSS likely to follow suit. We still expect our best-positioned retailers to return to
peak operating margins by FY11; this is not yet priced into the shares, and
therefore presents an opportunity for investors to see nice upside, particularly for
JWN, TGT, KSS, & JCP.
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