2010年3月中国汽车零部件行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国汽车零部件行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：72
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Executive summary 3
Valuation 4
Healthy auto consumption to continue 11
Inland demand becoming a key driver 13
Low penetration rate and growth in disposal income support mid-/long term
growth 15
Government policy 16
Scrapping incentive to buoy replacement consumption 16
Auto finance policy to enhance affordability 17
Government purchase 19
Fuel efficiency: new regulation plays a wild card 20
New energy 20
Balanced supply-demand relationship 22
Moderate capacity growth in 2010 22
Ambitious new product launches and sales targets from independent brands 23
Latest company views
Great Wall Motor 27
Dongfeng Motor 34
Geely Automobile 42
Denway Motors 51
Brilliance China Automotive 56

Be selective
􀁣 Balanced supply-demand relationship in FY10
We believe auto sales volumes in China will rise by 13% in 2010F to 15mn
vehicles, with PV sales up 16% to 9.7mn, crossover sales up 12% to 2.2mn and
total commercial vehicle sales up 9% to 3.5mn. We are more optimistic about
utilisation in 2010 than consensus and expect PV capacity to increase at a similar
rate as sales volume in 2010F. We thus believe supply-demand will be in healthy
equilibrium in 2010, mitigating downward pressure on prices amid overcapacity.
􀁤 Government policy to increase consumer affordability
We believe the government will continue to support the auto industry through
incentive policies thanks to its contribution to sustainable economic growth. We
expect some new policies in 2010, including: scrapping incentives; government
purchases; auto financing; fuel efficiency; and new energy vehicles. We believe
GWM and Dongfeng could be the major beneficiaries.
􀁥 Risks: demand, demand and demand
PV sales remained strong in January 2010, up 122% y-y and 12% m-m, while
February showed some cooling off due to Chinese New Year holidays. We believe
the PV sales growth momentum will moderate from March due to the high base
effect. Strong evidence shows that PV sales are correlated to the stock and
property markets, which makes our demand forecasts difficult. We believe
domestic brands, such as Geely and Chery, could be more vulnerable if sales fall
short of our forecasts, as most domestic brand companies have excess capacity.
􀁦 Investment conclusion: buy growth and relatively cheap valuation
Auto stocks are at the high end of historical trading ranges on both PBR (average
2.0x versus three-year historical average of 1.7x) and PER (average 13x versus
three-year historical average of 10x), but we believe it is not prudent to short auto
stocks as many OEMs should still enjoy decent growth (volume and profit) in 2010.
We recommend buying stocks with relatively higher growth potential along with
relatively cheaper valuations (Great Wall, Dongfeng and Weichai), and have
REDUCE calls on high valuation and/or low growth stocks (Denway and Brilliance).

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关键词：行业研究报告 汽车零部件 中国汽车 行业研究 研究报告 中国 研究报告 行业 汽车零部件

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