2010年3月美国新传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国新传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：CANACCORD ADAMS
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：90
        【目录或简介】：
NEW MEDIA: Over-The-Top
Video/TV
Understanding the implications of this large new
product cycle
The developing over-the-top video/TV market creates new opportunities and represents
a dramatic change in traditional industry competitive dynamics, distribution and
pricing models. In our opinion, this “shifting of the sands” within a traditional and
relatively unchanged marketplace will create new winners and losers. This report has
been written to provide a better understanding of these pending changes, with a focus
on those companies and stocks most highly exposed to this evolution.
Initiating coverage of Coinstar and Netflix
• With this report we initiate coverage of Coinstar (CSTR : BUY) and Netflix (NFLX :
BUY).
• We also provide updates on DivX (DIVX : HOLD), Rovi (ROVI : BUY), Blockbuster
(BBI : Not rated) and Tivo (TIVO : Not rated).
NEW OPPORTUNITIES OR CANNIBALIZATION?
OVER-THE-TOP VIDEO/TV
Within the New Media universe, we are increasingly finding that over the top (OTT)
video/TV is emerging as a major new, and somewhat controversial, product cycle,
presenting new market opportunities but also threatening to be very disruptive to
traditional media markets and their incumbents. Briefly defined, OTT video/TV involves
leveraging the open access and broad availability of Internet content and services (via
broadband connection) into a mainstream TV viewing experience in the home. Broadly
speaking, OTT video positions the TV as the center of the digital living room and is
enabled essentially by direct Internet connectivity (versus a more closed cable network),
which opens the door for a broad new selection of free and paid content, but
simultaneously creates a threat to traditional service provider content distribution and
pricing models.
Revenue from the delivery of Internet video to TV is expected to grow to $5.7B in 2014
from $1B in 2009, a nearly six-fold increase, according to the Diffusion Group.
This product cycle is expected to get a major boost in 2010 and beyond, driven by
positive developments from several areas. First, we are starting to see an explosion of
Internet-connected consumer electronic devices enter into the market (e.g., web-enabled
TVs, game consoles, Blu-ray players and set-top-boxes). In addition, major content
providers (i.e., Hollywood and broadcast networks) are now being forced into
exploring/supporting these developing new market opportunities at the risk of watching
their traditional release windows erode. Finally, consumer awareness, and thereby
adoption, of these services is expected to expand dramatically with the entrance and
subsequent promotion from major retailers such as BestBuy, Wal-Mart and Amazon,
followed quickly by traditional pay-TV service providers.
While OTT video/TV is a nascent market today, we believe consumer interest is very high
and activity levels are building rapidly, which has all market participants watchingclosely. Signs of the building consumer interest and the potential disruption that
adoption could bring can be found in recent data points from Hulu and Netflix, as well as
recent quotes from executives at Time Warner Cable and Comcast.
Hulu (www.hulu.com), a privately held ad-sponsored Internet video streaming service
focused on TV content, has seen a doubling of viewer video downloads in just the last
three months. Netflix which just recently introduced limited video streaming of
syndicated movies, reported that as of Q4/09 48% of its 12M+ subscribers are already
using this service (with an estimated 50% viewing directly from their TV, according to
the Diffusion Group) and this penetration is growing rapidly.
The CEO of Time Warner Cable stated in a recent investor call that “we are starting to
see the beginning of cord cutting. People will choose not to buy subscription video if they
can get the same stuff for free,” while a senior vice president of Comcast said, “It’s
something people are talking about, but it’s not actually happening right now.”
INVESTMENT THESIS
The developing over-the-top video/TV market creates new opportunities and represents
a dramatic change in many traditional industry competitive dynamics and distribution
and pricing models. Consumer behavior (adoption of video streaming cannot be ignored)
is seen by many market participants as foreshadowing a dramatic change in the future
consumption patterns for video content. CE device OEMs, retailers and Internet service
providers/aggregators now all have the capacity to enter and compete for the estimated
$120B+ per year revenue pie currently captured primarily by network and pay-tv
operators. In our opinion, this “shifting of the sands” within a traditional and relatively
unchanged marketplace will create new winners and losers. This report has been written
to provide a better understanding of these pending changes, with a focus on those
companies and stocks most highly exposed to this evolution.
INDUSTRY TRENDS
After growing at a three-year CAGR of 15% from 2004 to 2007, the global consumer
electronics (CE) market slowed to 1.4% growth in 2008 (in total market value) because of
the global recession. It continued to suffer materially during the last nine to 12 months,
which resulted in revenue declines of up to 20% and a severe impact on industry
profitability. However, statistics have indicated that the home and personal audio/visualcentric
markets have remained relatively robust throughout the recession, driven
primarily from heady price cutting that was required to keep demand on pace. According
to Futuresource, the global CE market is estimated to contract by 7% in 2009, but should
resume to 4-5% growth in 2010, which is on par with the 30-year average for the sector.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 传媒行业 distribution 美国 研究报告 行业

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