2010年3月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：70
        【目录或简介】：
JC Decaux (Buy): Results due March 10th
We forecast 2009 net income of E36.7m and EPS of E0.17.We forecast a 2009
company defined "operating margin" of E369m (E549.9m 2008), 19.2% of revenue
(20.4% H1 vs 18% H2). Improved revenue performance (H2 organic revenues
down -9.8% vs -13.3% in H1) and cost saving have underpinned 2009 margins.
2009 revenues announced on 29th January were ahead of expectations due to
stronger than expected Q4 organic revenues in Street Furniture and Billboard. The
2009 quarterly organic revenue profile has been -11.9% Q1, -15.3% Q2, -12.1%
Q3, -4.9% Q4. At the time we upgraded our 2010 organic revenue estimate to
+4.8%, to reflect Q1 guidance of 'positive organic growth'. With revenues now
recovering, reflecting favourable comparatives, and we believe a genuine pick-up
in demand, we currently assume 20.3% margins in 2010.
Axel Springer (Buy): Results due March 10th
AS reports Q4/FY-09 results pre market open on 10-March. We estimate Q4
revenues E716m, EBITDA E82m, EPS 1.10. We assume German newspaper ad
revenues down 11% in Q4, but up 2% in 2010; German magazine ad revenues
down 20% in Q4, but up 2% in 2010; International ad revenues down 36% in Q4,
but up 3% in 2010; Digital ad revenues up 10% in Q4 (or up 41% incl. of
Stepstone), up 5% in 2010 (or up 29% incl. of Stepstone).
Johnston Press (Hold): Results due March 11th
We estimate revenues £419m, EBITA £63m, PTP £34m, EPS 3.85p and DPS 0.0p
We assume that ad revenues fall by -5% in 2010, with declines in low teens in Q1,
moderating towards zero by H2. In contrast to a Nationals newspaper business,
this remains predominantly an advertising call – even after large declines, ad
revenues (incl. of internet) are still >60% of forecast 2010 revenues, although
circulation at close to 25% is important. We assume a 15% decline in
employment advertising, and 5% and 7% declines in property and motors
respectively. The large single ad category is however now Display – we estimate
around £85m in revenue in 2010, against £39m for employment the next largest
individual category. Display has been a reasonably robust category, only down 9%
in 2008 and only down 20% in 2009.
Mediaset (Buy): New media decree approved
The Italian Government has given its final approval to the new media decree.
These are the most significant changes: Product placement allowed for brand
names and products. The beneficiaries are content producers and TV
broadcasters, which now have a new source of revenues to exploit; Pay-TV
advertising limits - the amount of advertising allowed on pay-TV channels is
reduced from 18% in 2009 to 16% 2010, 14% 2011, 12% in 2012 and thereafter.
Sky Italia is currently utilizing all its advertising capacity and has adv sales of E250-
300m. Mediaset Premium (MS’s DTT pay-TV) is already far below the new limits.
Advertising breaks changed: the new law provides more flexibility on adv breaks.
Broadcasters are currently allowed to break every 20 mins. The new law should
allow shorter and more frequent breaks.

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