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[外行报告] 2010年3月美国汽车轮胎行业研究报告 [推广有奖]

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bigfoot0517 发表于 2010-3-24 17:04:13 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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【出版时间及名称】:2010年3月美国汽车轮胎行业研究报告
        【作者】:摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】:pdf
        【页数】:53
        【目录或简介】:

Investment thesis: We are initiating coverage of
Goodyear (GT) at Underweight (PT $14) and Cooper
(CTB) at Overweight (PT $24). We prefer CTB due to
attractive valuation and tailwinds from Chinese import
tariffs, which should help it offset materials inflation and
industry mix headwinds better than GT.
We believe the mid-decade “golden age” of tires
driven by price / mix gains is over. We are cautious
on long-term tire demand as miles driven per tire falls
and tire longevity improves. In the near term however,
we see pent up demand driving a surge in replacement
volumes. Recent price increases across the industry
seem to be sticking, though higher list prices on a
commodity product like tires could lead to weaker mix as
consumers try to keep transaction prices low, which the
market seems to be missing. This could be positive for
CTB with its mid-low end focus and lower price points.
We are less bullish than consensus on GT as we
think price/mix is unlikely to offset raw material inflation
unlike the previous cycle. FCF is also likely to remain
weak as pension costs and capex tick up. Valuation at
current levels appears fair and our DCF-derived $14 PT
translates to 4.7x EV/2011e EBITDA, in-line with history
and the peer group. Our UW-rating (within the Autos &
Auto Related space) is based on our view that there is
very little upside for the stock, our below-consensus
estimates and our relative preference for CTB over GT.
CTB’s attractive valuation trumps cost concerns.
We see significantly more upside for CTB than GT and
our est. are above consensus. Our positive view is
based on price gains in CTB’s main end-markets from
Chinese tire tariffs, improved utilization / restructuring
benefits and CTB’s better exposure to the high-growth
local China market, which should help temper the LIFO
impact of materials headwinds. Valuation at 4x EV /
2011e EBITDA is also attractive vs. peers / history.

Contents
Investment Case 3
Global Tire Comps: Benchmarking Analysis 4
3 Key Value Drivers Drive Industry Debates 5
Volume 6
Price 9
Mix 10
Goodyear Tire: Upcoming Headwinds Constrain Upside 12
Key Debates
When will margins recover? 12
How is GT positioned in a noisy demand environment? 18
Is cash flow strong enough to drive value? 19
Model & Estimates 20
Valuation 20
Cooper Tire: Attractive Valuation Trumps Cost Concerns 21
Key Debates
Does Chinese tire tariff tailwind offset brand weakness? 24
Will pricing gains outpace materials inflation? 25
How big is the China opportunity for CTB? 26
Model & Estimates 28
Global Tire Industry Snapshot 29
Full Financial Models 34
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关键词:行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 Benchmarking environment 美国 研究报告 行业 汽车 轮胎

ms 美国汽车轮胎 3.pdf

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总评分: 经验 + 40  论坛币 + 1998  学术水平 + 2  热心指数 + 2   查看全部评分

楼主,怎么样才能得到这份报告呢?
踏实研究,谨慎投资。。。
If  U think  U can,U can!

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yazhe 发表于 2010-3-24 18:45:27 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
楼主的金币是七位数

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楼主 我急需美国从中国进口轮胎的价格,能不能提供给我这个数据,我目前没这么多钱买这个报告,帮帮忙吧, 我急用,谢谢!

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shanlaier 发表于 2010-10-8 15:31:53 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
楼主,本人目前要写论文,是做这方面研究的,但是苦于找不到具体轮胎出口贸易数据,希望能得到你的帮忙!期待能得到你的回复!

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lemosen 发表于 2010-10-16 19:37:49 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
我也需要啊!谢谢了!!

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再加10000,就有人买了

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啊翔 发表于 2011-2-23 14:45:36 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
价格确实比较合理

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Elowise 发表于 2011-2-23 17:30:14 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
这个不错!

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Elowise 发表于 2011-2-23 17:35:30 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
十分感谢!

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