2010年3月马来西亚传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月马来西亚传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
Action
We maintain our Bullish view on the Malaysian media sector. Our preferred pick is
Media Prima (BUY maintained), which we believe will benefit from recovery in TV
advertising spending. We are NEUTRAL on Astro, which relies on subscriptions
more than adex, where subscriber growth is being offset by higher content costs
(World Cup, EPL) and higher capex in the rollout of its HD services.
􀁡 Catalysts
The big advertising clients are increasing their adex budgets, having scaled back
last year amid the worst domestic slowdown since the 1998-99 economic crisis.
Anchor themes
Our favoured media space is television advertising, given Malaysia’s favourable
demographic profile (growing middle class, young population). We believe TV will
continue to take adex market share from print over the next three years.
Buy TV exposure, Neutral on pay-TV
􀁣 Malaysia ad spending expected to rebound this year
Our economists expect private consumption to grow 4.5% this year, from just 1.1%
last year. This recovery should underpin growth in advertising budgets by top
advertisers this year after a poor 2009. Evidence thus far includes better fill-rates
by top advertisers for Media Prima this year over last year. For 2010, we expect
overall adex to grow 8%, on a 5.5% expansion in real GDP.
􀁤 TV ad spending should continue to outpace print adex
We continue to favour the growth potential of TV adex in Malaysia’s media space.
Although the Internet has been taking market share from traditional media globally,
new media is still in its nascent stages in Malaysia (with just 1% of overall adex).
Here, favourable demographic factors such as a young population and the growing
Malay middle class support TV adex over print. We forecast that TV adex will grow
9% for 2010, versus 6% growth in print adex.
􀁥 Top pick — Media Prima (price target: RM2.50)
The group recorded a 39% decline in FY09 pretax earnings as TV advertising
revenue fell because of heavy price discounting and as key clients scaled back
adex budgets. We expect a V-shaped recovery this year in view of what we
anticipate to be a turnaround in private consumption. The stock trades at an FY10F
EV/EBITDA of 7.6x, against the regional sector average of 11.8x.
􀁦 NEUTRAL — Astro (price target: RM3.80)
Astro has lower leverage to the TV adex recovery, as ad revenue makes up just
5% of its TV operations. Still, we expect pay-TV subscriptions to be decent (we
project 7% growth), but estimate earnings will fall 8% on higher content costs and
HD service rollout. The stock trades at 11.1x FY11F EV/EBITDA, which does not
look cheap versus international peers like BSkyB (8.3x) and Sky Networks (8.4x).

Contents
Investment summary 3
Prefer Media Prima over Astro 3
Valuations 3
Malaysia media outlook for 2010 5
Structure of the media sector in Malaysia 5
Cyclically, adex growth is trending higher 5
Economy forecast to grow 5.5% in 2010 6
Structurally, TV is expected to do better than print, in our view 7
Global media outlook for 2010F 10
Risks 12
Latest company views
Media Prima 13
Astro All Asia 28

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