2010年3月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
UBM was a top 3 UK media performer in 2003's rally; yet in the bottom 3 in
2009's rally. Its portfolio is far less print-heavy now, but overall cyclical exposure is
still similar so it should benefit from improving corporate spend. With material
upside to our new 650p (from 500p) price target, we upgrade to BUY.
2009 beat on EPS by 6%. 2010, with higher interest costs and a cycling-out year in
Shows looks less compelling, but our 2011/12 forecasts rise by 11%/4%. Coming
out of the 2003 slump UBM had a major drag from print technology ad revenues.
This a much smaller issue now. The portfolio, while less cyclical overall now (75%
in 2009 v. 90% in 2003), is still the most cyclical in the B2B space and is a much
BETTER cyclical now: print advertising is ~26% of the cyclical part now, against
61% in 2003. We think UBM can benefit MORE from the upswing this time. The
cash-out to settle the long standing tax issue (£46m in Mar-10) restricts cash
generation in 2010 (and may explain a freeze on the final 2009 div), but means that
leverage multiples now not only look low, but are low. If UBM re-levers to 2.0x
EBITDA at end 2012 thru sensible but not stellar M&A, our EPS forecasts would
rise 10%. The ability to acquire while prices are low is a key attraction in our view.
Informa PLC (Hold): Downgrade to HOLD
We downgrade our INF rating to HOLD after a recent strong run in the stock to a
new 12-month high. We still expect Informa to see a gradual improvement in
revenue growth over 2010 and our estimates are unchanged. The relative valuation
(8.2x 2011E EBITDA and 10.6x 2011E PE) is now at a modest premium to the
nearest peer (UBM) and (on EBITDA) in line with Reed Elsevier.
Aegis (Hold): FY09 results review
Aegis reported FY09 revenues of £1346m (DBe £1351m). FY organic revenues
declined -9.7% (Media -9.7%, Research -9.6%) vs our -9.2% forecast. Media
revenue improved to -8% organic in Q4 from -11.8% in Q3. Synovate improved to
-10.8% net organic in Q4 from -14.4% in Q3. Operating profit was £170m (DB est
£161.8m consensus £166m). This was driven, in particular, by a sharper than
expected turnaround in Synovate (research) profitability in H2 as cost savings
accelerated (H2 margin 14% 2009 vs 11.6% in 2008). PTP £149m (DB est £143m,
consensus £143-148m). EPS adj. is 9.5p vs 9.0p est. The group has announced a
convertible bond to raise £170m - this is to strengthen the balance sheet explicitly
for M&A, as bolt-on deals are stepped up. Aegis has guided to a return to "modest
growth" in 2010. We assume +2.3% organic revenue growth. EPS is unchanged at
9.8p, with an operating profit upgrade (£187m from £179m) offset by dilution from
the convertible. Within the agency sector, our preference remains for the large cap
plays, WPP (Buy 780p target) and Publicis (Buy E35.5 target).
RCS MediaGroup (Buy): FY09 final results comment; maintain Buy
RCS FY09 posted a net loss of E130m in line with our estimates. During the call,
management confirmed the good ad trends in Q1-10 in both Italy and Spain (up
low single digits). On the efficiency plan, RCS believes the E70m cost savings
planned for 2010-11 could be fully achieved in FY-10. Disposal of peripheral assets
will continue, with some announcements in coming months. We confirm our Buy.

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