2010年3月欧洲银行业研究报告

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
Asset growth and margin expansion are
expected to be slower this time than
they were after the 1992-1993 recession
 However we still see value; we think the
downside risk to earnings is overdiscounted
and the sector is 20%
undervalued
 Our favourite stocks are Credit Suisse,
Barclays, Lloyds, Credit Agricole, KBC,
Erste Bank, Commerzbank
After the 1992-1993 recession, bank volumes and
margins expanded while loan-loss provisions dropped
significantly. From 1993 to 1995, our universe enjoyed a
35bp total pickup in core revenue margin and 16% pa
growth in credit demand. In our view the gains were fuelled
by the average 2.3% pa growth in GDP in the main
European countries.
After the 2008-2009 recession, we estimate lower asset
growth because of a slow GDP recovery and a tougher
regulatory framework. We estimate 2% per year asset
growth for our universe in 2010-2011, compared with 14%
per year in 1993-1995, as we estimate European GDP to
grow more slowly, at only 1.2% in 2010, and 1.3% in 2011.
Core revenue margins will recover over the next three
years. Signs are emerging that core margins began to
recover in 2009 in some European countries, such as France,
Spain and Switzerland. We estimate core revenue margin ex
CIBM will rise 18bp from 2009 to 2011, driven by both net
interest (13bp) and fees and commissions margins (5bp).
Loan-loss provisions have peaked but some countries are
late cyclical. We think LLPs peaked in 2009, but positions
in the credit cycle differ from bank to bank and country to
country. Germany, Italy and Spain are latecomers compared
with France, and the UK, which started to suffer from
increased provisions earlier.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 银行业 significant 研究报告 银行业 欧洲