2010年4月印度证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：

SUBJECT SLIDE No.
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………….03
Sector view, Top Picks and Model Portfolio ……………………………………………. 04
India poised for higher GDP growth ………………………………………………………12
Investment cycle set to turn around ………………………………………………………19
High growth likely to allay fiscal deficit concerns …………………………………….. 24
Union Budget: good balance between prudence and profligacy …………………… 28
Monetary tightening: we do not see risk of policy error……………………………… 30
Valuations and Earnings …………………………………………………………………….33
Risks to the positive outlook ……………………………………………………………….45

India Equity Strategy: Maintain positive view; Sensex target at 22,000
• 2010 annual Sensex target of 22,000
• Our target implies an upside of ~24% from current levels, and a PE of 20x based on DB FY11 EPS estimates
• Although our target multiple seems steep, strong economic recovery should drive robust earnings upgrades leading to mid-cycle valuations
• We are banking on a return to 8-9% GDP growth trajectory to drive market performance
• Our 2010 outlook is premised on two broad themes: a shifting paradigm in the composition of global economic growth towards key emerging
markets and restoration of India’s GDP growth to an 8-9% trajectory in next 12 months;
• Govt of India’s Economic Survey has indicated a base case GDP growth of 8.5% in FY11, driving our confidence on return to an 8-9% GDP
growth trajectory
• Union budget underscores government’s growth bias
• The FM managed to strike a delicate balance between prudence and profligacy, by ensuring more money in the hands of consumer through
tax relief and still managed to show a credible trajectory for fiscal consolidation
• Cyclical rebound in taxes, ambitious disinvestment target and falling share of non-plan expenditure should help in containing fiscal deficit. We
are optimistic on disinvestment agenda, although we believe pricing should be relatively more attractive
• Robust consumption, high capacity utilization, and government push to mark turn in capex cycle
• Domestic consumption, rising capacity utilization and strong governmental push on infrastructure creation should drive a turnaround in capex
cycle leading to GDP and earnings upgrades and re-rating of the market
• CMIE, an independent think tank, estimates a very high level of capacity commissioning of ~US$145bn in FY11
• Monetary tightening – we do not see risk of policy error
• Current monetary conditions are still benign, and needs to align with the expected high-growth-phase
• Empirically a gradual and prolonged tightening has been associated with high GDP growth and positive equity returns
• Bond yield concerns seem exaggerated; However, inflation sticking sustainably above 8% could be a worry
• Prefer Domestic consumption and its beneficiaries, infrastructure and industrial recovery plays:
• Our key buy ideas are: ICICI Bank, Maruti, M&M, ITC, BHEL, L&T, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, JSW Steel and Sterlite
• We also highlight key mid cap picks: Aurobindo Pharma, Dabur, Titan, OnMobile, and Thermax
• Crude oil spike, deluge of issuances, inflation, sovereign defaults and US$ strength are key risks
• We believe a sharp spike in crude prices could impact market sentiment, while a deluge of issuance holds potential to affect market volume
• Amongst key exogenous risks are any sovereign defaults and continuation of US$ strength that may lead to decline in risk appetite

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