【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月德国银行业研究报告
【作者】:汇丰银行
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:64
【目录或简介】:
Although the biggest burden from the
financial crisis may be factored into 2009
accounts, we believe 2010 will still be
difficult year as loan loss provisions
remain a massive risk factor, and the
margin outlook is still uncertain
The market segments are moving in
different directions – in retail banking
competition is still increasing while it is
decreasing in corporate banking
We keep our Overweight rating for
comdirect bank, and our Overweight (V)
ratings for Aareal Bank and
Commerzbank. We stay Neutral (V) on
Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Postbank
Looking at the German banking system, it seems to us that the
crisis is not over yet and more problems will affect the banks.
Our first reason for this opinion is that we believe corporate
and private household insolvencies will increase in 2010e
following an increase in 2009e. The continuing uncertainty
about whether loan loss provisions for the banks have peaked
leaves massive doubts about their balance sheet quality. We
expect this to affect the savings banks and co-operative banks
much more than the listed private banks, because loan loss
charges at Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank should probably
trend down due to IFRS pre-cyclical provisioning policy.
The overall interest margin outlook remains difficult, in our
view. Investors still have doubts about the sustainability of
margin improvements in the lending business. Some people
argue that current margins are too high and will come down
again. But we would like to note that this is the first time ever
that banks have been able to earn a decent return on their
underlying capital. The deposit-taking business is operating
with minimal or negative margins which affects the banks with
deposit overhang, like Postbank, and the savings banks.
Last but not least, we see the degree of competition varying
between market segments. While competition in retail
banking is still increasing due to the hunt for deposits and
the presumed low risk environment, it seems to be
decreasing in corporate banking.
Executive summary 3
German banks: It ain’t over
until it’s over 5
Company profiles 21
Aareal Bank 22
comdirect bank 29
Commerzbank 35
Deutsche Bank 43
Deutsche Postbank 48
Disclosure appendix 58
Disclaimer 63