2010年4月美国证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：


Positive on Housing Food Chain
Homebuilders most attractive, but also Mortgage
Insurers, Suppliers, Timber. 13 Ideas
US Equity Strategy
Thomas J Lee, CFAAC
(1-212) 622-6505
thomas.lee@jpmorgan.com
Bhupinder Singh
(1-212) 622-6406
bhupinder.b.singh@jpmorgan.com
Daniel M McElligott
(1-212) 622-5598
daniel.m.mcelligott@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 44 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
STRATEGY VIEW:
• Short-term concerns developing
• Housing bottoms in 1Q
• Credit eases in 2010
• Possible full job recovery
• Early in cycle for Cyclicals
• Domestic Cyclicals over Int’l
• Favor “Bad Balance Sheets”
SECTOR RATINGS:
Overweight Underweight
Financials Staples
Discretionary Utilities
Technology
Materials Neutral
Industrials Healthcare
Energy Telecom
Note: All pricing as of the close on
April 7, 2010, unless otherwise
indicated.
There is a lot of noise currently on the state of the US housing market, reminding us of
the debate on labor markets from Oct ’09. We are constructive on US housing and
believe data points will surprise to the upside by year-end.
• HOUSING APPEARS ON MEND. STARTS >1mm in ’11E? Housing peaked in
late 2005 and has deteriorated over the last 4.5 years. There is progressively more
evidence housing is on a path to recovery: (i) vacancy rates peaked in late-08; (ii)
prices have stabilized since Spring ’09; (iii) existing homes sales back above 5mm
since mid-’09; (iv) early-stage mortgage delinquencies declining since late-09.
Moreover, Mortgage Insurers, Home Improvement Retailers, and Regional
Banks have rallied, affirming the establishment of these trends.
• WE EST. EXCESS SUPPLY OF HOUSING OF 1.56MM IS ABSORBED BY
90K-119K PER MONTH – TIGHT MARKET BY SPRING ’11E. The current
low level of housing starts of 575k enables the market to absorb the glut of homes
built since 2004. We estimate excess supply is 1.56mm homes (660k housing, 897k
rental units) comparing current vacancy rates to long-term averages. Net absorption
of this excess is 90k-119k/month, based on (i) 48k starts; (ii) -29k to -42k scrap rate;
(iii) 109k-125k in HH formation. Thus, by early ’11E, the excess is gone and starts
need to revert to HH formation rate plus scrap.
• NET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION (HH) EST. AT 8MM ’09E-’14E. US Adult
population set to rise by 13.1mm by 2014, largest increase since ’84, as Echo Boom
(born ’81-’00) enter adulthood. Unlike any prior generation, this RISE in Adults is
coming at a time of RISING Children – a unique and positive combination (see
Figure 26). Based on historical ratio of housing (see Figure 27) at each age segment,
this implies 6.5mm additional housing units needed. Scrapped housing is another
1.5mm over that time. Total incremental demand is 8mm homes/rental units, or
1.6mm starts per year. This is 3X current level and could be seen as early as ’11
(see above).
• PLAYING THE FOOD CHAIN: 8 GROUPS LEVERAGED TO HOUSING
STARTS. We identified 8 groups leveraged to different areas of the housing food
chain. Conceptually, we are most interested in those leveraged to a rise in housing
starts. We analyzed these groups based on timing (cycle), valuation, YTD
performance, Street bullishness and Short Interest. Most attractive, in our view, are
Homebuilders (starts), Mortgage Insurers (price stability and starts), Building
Supplies (starts, mostly), Timber (starts). Other plays also make sense but with less
potential upside, including Regional Banks (price stability), Land Plays (later cycle
on starts), Home Improvement Retailers (existing home sales, but also starts) and
Title Insurers (existing home sales).
13 Food Chain Ideas: We identified 11 stocks leveraged to the Housing Food Chain
based on a combination of JPM Analyst views, top-down analysis, and valuation. The
11 tickers are KBH, LEN, TOL, GNW, OC, WSO, WLK, WY, LPX, LOW, HD. A
12th and 13th, chosen on the basis of their Buzz-o-Meter scores, are RDN and JOE.

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