2010年4月印度证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：27
        【目录或简介】：

Global liquidity lifts Indian equities. Improving global investor sentiment
was reflected in strong flows into EMs over March, including India (FII
inflows of US$4.3 bn). DIIs were net sellers in the secondary market, but
meaningful participants in primary issues. Our money flow monitor suggests
inflows into commodity sectors and outflows from consumer and industrials.
• Investor confidence or complacency? Outstanding positions scaled a new
high in the derivatives market and implied vols touched new lows, reflecting
investor sentiment. But market breadth remains weak and trading volumes in
the cash market remain subdued and could be a cause for short term concern.
• INR surges on robust portfolio flows. YTD, the INR has outperformed peer
group currencies. Until recently the policy bias has favoured appreciation,
given the need to reign in inflation. But with the REER approaching the upper
end of the historic band, near term intervention to temper the rate of
appreciation cannot be ruled out. Into CY2010, the J.P.Morgan rates team is
positive on the INR and expect a further 3% appreciation vs. the USD.
• ECBs to the fore? The current macro environment of tightening local
monetary policy vs. a relatively easier policy among developed economies
and an appreciating currency could lead to a repeat of the trend seen over
2006-07, when corporate India borrowed a significant part of their funding
requirement through External Commercial Borrowings (ECB).
• INR appreciation and portflio stance. Historically, phases of INR
apprecaition have seen relative outperformance for domestic growth sectors -
Financials, Indusatrials and Utilities and underperformance of export sectors
(IT, Healthcare) and defensives (Telecom, Consumer Staples).
• Insider activity. Insiders were marginal net sellers over the month.
Net buy: ITC, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra, Hindalco, GMR
Net Sell: JSW Steel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, M&M, HCL Tech,
Ambuja Cement, United Spirits, Jaipraksh Associate

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