2010年4月美国互联网行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国互联网行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：

March 2010 Quarterly Preview
Overview
In this note, we lay out our expectations for AMZN, EBAY, GOOG and YHOO’s first
quarter earnings, based on channel checks and recent data points across the ecommerce,
search marketing and online display sub sectors. Overall, we highlight three general
trends:
Trend No. 1: Cyclical Recovery Provides a Positive Backdrop
The ongoing recovery of the global economy continues to set a positive backdrop for the
sector. In addition to generally improving macro-economic indicators, industry data
suggests an acceleration in overall ecommerce spending and in site traffic for Amazon
and, to a lesser extent, eBay.
On the advertising side, our channel checks find that the advertising market continues to
firm across both traditional and new media. Search should continue to benefit from growth
in queries, higher keyword prices, and, in the case of Google, higher paid clicks, due to its
Sitelink initiative. Similarly, display trends appear to be improving across the board in
terms of pricing and volume. As a result, we see little earnings risk heading into 1Q10
quarterly results, and we are raising our 1Q10 estimates for Google.
Trend No. 2: F/X Less of a Tailwind
We expect that currency should be a modest positive tailwind for the group on a year over
year basis. On average, for 1Q10, on a year over year basis, the dollar has depreciated
8.7% vs. the British pound, 2.6% vs. the Euro, and 1.7% vs. the Japanese yen. However,
the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar intra-quarter is expected to mitigate the positive
year over year benefit. For example, as of January 1 2010, the year over year depreciation
of the dollar was 11%, 3.9%, and -1.1% for the British pound, the Euro and the Japanese
yen, respectively.
Trend No. 3: Stocks Lag YTD
Despite a positive fundamental outlook, our Internet coverage universe has risen only
3.6% YTD, lagging the 6.6% increase in the S&P500. We attribute some of the
underperformance to the 92.5% average increase in 2009 for the group (vs. 23.5% for the
broader market). In addition, company specific issues, such as the China situation for
Google and the launch of Apple’s iPad for Amazon, have also weighed on these stocks.
Going forward, as some of these concerns ease, we believe the Consumer Internet sector
should experience some catch up as underlying growth trends remain healthy. As a result,
we maintain our Market Weight rating on the sector.

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