2010年4月北欧银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北欧银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：50
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Executive summary ..................................................................................... 3
The valuation gap........................................................................................ 6
Winners’ competitive edge has narrowed ........................................................... 8
Few signs of market share gains ..............................................................................................8
Funding cost: Tighter spreads reduce winners’ advantage.....................................................10
Growth: less difference than you think ............................................................. 12
Regulatory risk a clear differentiator ................................................................ 14
Will politicians dare…?............................................................................................................14
EU: Consensus on a Bank Tax has emerged...........................................................................15
Nordics: Quicker than EU...? ...................................................................................................16
Relative winners & losers on the Nordic regulatory risk screen..............................................17
Company section...................................................................................... 19
Danske Bank ........................................................................................... 20
Key points ...............................................................................................................................20
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................22
DnB NOR............................................................................................... 24
Key points ...............................................................................................................................24
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................25
Handelsbanken ........................................................................................ 27
Key points ...............................................................................................................................27
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................29
Nordea.................................................................................................. 31
Key points ...............................................................................................................................31
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................33
SEB...................................................................................................... 35
Key points ...............................................................................................................................35
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................37
Swedbank .............................................................................................. 39
Key points ...............................................................................................................................39
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................42
Appendix: Nordic banks Net Stable Funding Ratios .............................................. 44
Appendix: Regulatory Calendar...................................................................... 47

Executive summary
􀂄 Defensive Nordics underperform as growth stories disappoint. Investors pay
premium for Nordic banks on defensive qualities/low sovereign risk; 1.3x TBV/6.4x PPP a
6% and 43% premium to EU peers. Risk of underper. as we see growth disappoint;
weak cyclical corp. credit demand / new rules could take 40-50% off mortgage growth.
􀂄 Nordic valuation gap could close We have taken longer view, to see if winners’
SHB/Nordea’s premium val. (2x hist. ave.) is warranted. See little evidence of market
share gains so far, and “losers” could regain enough ground to reduce part of val. gap.
Funding cost is imperative; Swedbank’s/SEB’s CDS tightened and is 40bp above
SHB/Nordea; winners LT advantage reduced as Baltic event risk falls.
􀂄 Top pick: Danske Bank (reiterate Buy, TP DKK173), is a recovery story, with re-rating
potential (20% below EU peers at 3.6x PPP/TBV at 1.0x, 11E). EPS growth driven by
mechanical cost cutting/falling LLPs, give investors better visibility vs
expensive/uncertain Nordic growth stories, and Danske’s 10-12E ave. book growth of
11%/y is 1.5x peers. Margin upside not in DBe; +10bp on mortgage spread is +5% on
EPS. Macro supportive; Danish house prices stabilized H2 09.
􀂄 Swedbank (downgrade to Hold, TP SEK77), trade at 1.1x TBV 11E, gives limited
downside/material upside if bank turn into profit H1, and Estonian Euro entry, could be
catalyst to put meaningful pos. value on Baltic’s (DB value Baltic’s at SEK5.7/share).
Concern is that street overest. post-crisis earnings and mgmt’s ambition to term out is
not reflected in cons. NII est. YTD bank raised 70% of 2010 refin. need; risk of
substantial NII miss Q1 and sell-off ahead of results.
􀂄 DnB NOR (reiterate Hold, TP NOK61), is a place to hide, given low
sovereign/regulatory risk, and val. at 1.1x TBV, 11E is supportive. However, moving from
defensive play to growth story may not benefit share perf. Risks H1 as corp. lending
cyclically weak (esp. Shipping), new regulation could cut mortgage growth rate by 40-
50% (from 9% to 4%/year) and slower repo hikes, reduce ST NII upside. SEB (reiterate
Hold, TP SEK41), is most sensitive bank for DB theme of weak cyclical corporate credit
demand (70% of rev. corporates), and medium-term we see sub-average RoE of 9-10%,
as SEB need high CT1 to compete. Selling German Retail add 1-2% to RoE, we est.
􀂄 Bottom picks: Nordea (downgrade to Sell, TP EUR6.1) and SHB (reiterate Sell, TP
SEK161) are well placed to gain market shares LT. However, for Nordea, DBe 3%
EPS/6% book CAGR 10E-12E does not support a PPP mult. of 7.0x 11E (4th highest in
EU). Corporates is 40-50% of rev. growth, but weak cyclical demand/competition from
large EU banks, make needed 10%/year rev. growth hard, (DBe 2%/year rev. growth,
10E-12E). SHB’s defensive qualities support high valuation, but growth story (DBe -1%
EPS/5% book CAGR 10E-12E), does not warrant EU’s 2nd highest PPP-mult of 8.6x, 11E.

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