【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月土耳其证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】:荷兰国际集团
【文件格式】:PPT
【页数】:118
【目录或简介】:
1.Investment case
2.Macro Outlook
3.Banks
4.Consumer Stocks
5.Industrials
6.Diversified Industrials
7.Fertilisers
8.Appendix
Economic fundamentals are looking better. GDP is picking up and the Street is probably underestimating growth: consensus is 4.4%, 6% would notsurprise us.
􀂾2010 is the first full year of the growth cycle in Turkey. We believe 2011 will be a stronger year.
􀂾Cyclical sectors are showing strength: white goods, home appliances and car manufacturers are likely to lead growth. Both exports and domestic sales are strong, particularly in white goods.
􀂾Banks are liquid and still profitable –growing revenues is a challenge ahead but other P&L items should offset.
􀂾Government finances are in good shape –growth picking up should help and improve fiscal deficit.
􀂾The earnings estimates are too low, in our view. We expect analyst upgrades throughout the year. Bloomberg consensus is +12.5% in 2010: thisis because banks’earnings are slowing, but corporate earnings growth should be very strong and offset any shortfall in banks’profits. INGFhas +8.5% banks and +35% corporates.